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1. ssharp+(OP)[view] [source] 2024-09-26 16:35:09
There were tons of red flags that were completely set aside.

The largest are probably mobile betting and allowing for instant credit card deposits.

There is also the fantasy of being able to win money but the reality that if you actually win money in a consistent fashion, you will be either kicked-off or your action will be severely crippled.

I'd like to think the emerging prediction markets, like Polymarket, are much fairer systems, especially for winning players, and would be much better than sports books like DraftKings, FanDuel, etc.

replies(2): >>greyfa+zv1 >>erfgh+eK1
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2. greyfa+zv1[view] [source] 2024-09-27 04:23:40
>>ssharp+(OP)
Polymarket works on mobile and allows instant USDC deposits. Are these somehow red flags elsewhere, but not here?

Not to mention the Pandora's box that prediction markets open, when the order book can begin to influence real life events - from match fixing, to assassination markets.

replies(2): >>parody+oA1 >>the847+M52
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3. parody+oA1[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-09-27 05:20:08
>>greyfa+zv1
Polymarket isn't legal in the US
replies(2): >>greyfa+NA1 >>chilly+RK1
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4. greyfa+NA1[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-09-27 05:26:42
>>parody+oA1
Polymarket is based in New York, and all but tells prospective US users to use a VPN.
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5. erfgh+eK1[view] [source] 2024-09-27 06:56:55
>>ssharp+(OP)
> There is also the fantasy of being able to win money but the reality that if you actually win money in a consistent fashion, you will be either kicked-off or your action will be severely crippled.

This does not apply to all bookmakers. Also, betting exchanges exist where the players bet against each other therefore there is no incentive for the operator to ban winning players.

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6. chilly+RK1[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-09-27 07:01:20
>>parody+oA1
And yet the biggest markets on there are consistently us centric.
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7. the847+M52[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-09-27 10:21:40
>>greyfa+zv1
It's not like that box has been firmly closed until now. Every time someone stands to profit from one outcome over another they already have an incentive to influence the outcome, prediction market existing or not. And stock markets already act as a sort of prediction basket about future events that will influence the trajectory of a company (e.g. the outcome of trade negotiations, wars, court decisions, elections, the health of their CEO etc. etc.)

The upside of prediction markets is that it incentives people with information to make their honest estimates legible to society. E.g. an opinion piece in a newspaper has little skin in the game, other than the author's reputation.

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