zlacker

Work what? I think Ctrl+F China + collapse arguments still doesn't work.

1) Consumption is "sluggish", i.e. it's small positive growth instead of large precovid positive growth. It's not negative decline let alone collapse. Get off the FLG. Employment rate steady, including new grads at 20% accounting for those in school and not looking for work (i.e. the Chinese tertiary way), 40%-50% for graduate cohorts who takes time job hunting / not ready to settle. Which they will, given broad unemployments is steady, i.e. new grads get job after 1+ year and roll into genpop employment stats. There's 1% drop in new salaries in some industries, people are staying in jobs longer. "New productive" industry jobs, i.e. the high value ones set to drive PRC economy including energy, semi etc experience continuous growth. In aggregate positive, not fantastic, but also opposite of collapse.

2) Exports stabilizing after record covid highs, still only ~20% of gdp, i.e. PRC hasn't been (barely) export dependant for 10+ years at high of ~35%. If you follow brad setser, he'll note PRC exports probably being massively/deliberately hidden/under reported because two way data suggest much higher. BTW export dependant countries regularly over 50-100% export to gdp. Entire overproduction/overexport narrative is retarded considering how little PRC exports as share of GDP.

3) Who said EV was suppose to rescue PRC economy? PRC too big for 1 sector/industry to make difference. Collection of New productive industry jobs doing their part, sure. But generally when you remove RE drama, which they deliberately crippled, you get current modest 5% growth instead of previous 7-8%. Settling to modest growth is expected sooner or later. Modest growth (~5%) is enough to increase GDP PPP gap vs US. Most of projections on PRC passing US GDP assumes eventual modest growth + FX movements i.e strength RMB. Which they strategically don't want to because right now it's all about pricing out incumbant competitors in new export categories. Like CCP can get easy propaganda win by moving RMB band 5-10% to entier per capita $14000 USD high income range, but they don't because modest growth works fine.

>>maxglu+(OP)
>Who said EV was suppose to rescue PRC economy?

the gov is heavily investing & publicizing "New productive forces"[] that include "new energy vehicles"

[]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_productive_forces

[]:https://www.miit.gov.cn/zwgk/zcwj/wjfb/yj/art/2024/art_ad15b...

>>maxglu+(OP)
> Who said EV was suppose to rescue PRC economy?

"How are China's 'new three' export pillars powering the economy?". https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-03-07/How-are-China-s-new-th...

EV is literally one of the key pillars championed by the Chinese government as part of its 'new economy' initiative, straight from the horse's mouth.

>>MangoC+Gv
Of course state media is effusively celebrating new industry export success as it's achieving major policy goals. It's acknowledging that they're new pillars "powering" the export economy as in contributing to significant part of new export _growth_. Which is not to be (mis)construed as these exports are "rescuing" a "collapsed" economy as OP insinuates which is retarded tier analysis. New industries -> some of of 1T/6T (yuan) growth last year from a 126T (again yuan) economy (>0.7% assuming PRC exported 0 of those things in 2022). As as incorrigible OP is, even he recognize this is around 1% of economy, i.e. most of growth is still internal, non export driven.

>>kwere+6h
Yes, EV export up 70% YoY but is minority part of exports, less than 1T out of 24T yuan total exports of which export itself is ~20% of 126T economy, aka export itself is not driving most of PRC growth. Maybe 0.5% of ~5 or 10% of new growth which is a lot, but also 90% of again, growth is happening not because of EV. If you remove EV success PRC is still growing, not collapsing. OP is pretending subtracting 5-1 is some negative collpase number, when it's just slightly less positive. When I said EV is not suppose to rescue the economy, I mean economy is not suddenly going to turn negative if you remove EV, or most of the new industries, which is just another rebranding for all the strategic industries in MIC 2025, most of which will create biggest economic impact via domestic substitution before exports.