zlacker

If your strategy is dependent on the enemy continuing to make the same mistake year after year, then it's a bad strategy. The enemy always get a vote after all.

Now that said, assuming your enemy is competent can also lead to strategic miscalculation, such as Russia invading Ukraine when everybody but the US thought they would never be insane enough to do so. There's a difference between "what I would do if I were X" as opposed to "what would X really do?"

That said, it's safer to assume that the adversary is intelligent but that isn't a substitute for actually understanding your enemy. Or perhaps, they don't have to be your enemy.