zlacker

[parent] [thread] 17 comments
1. wolfra+(OP)[view] [source] 2024-06-14 13:02:54
As a German who lived abroad a long time, but moved to Berlin eight years ago, here’s my (completely personal) assessment of why Germany is going down the drain economically - and will continue to do so:

1) Mindset and Culture. The idea of entrepreneurship, hard work and reward for risk is becoming completely alien to Germans. New technologies and high growth sectors are almost exclusively perceived in terms of their risks and downsides. Security, reliance on the government for problem solving and tall poppy syndrome are paramount.

2) Overly complex civic systems. Germans always were famous for their bureaucracy. But government interference in the most minute details of running a business, endless red tape and micro regulations have made it largely impossible to be competitive on the international stage.

3) Poor Work Ethic. What? The Germans? Aren’t they known to be the hard working ones? Well - somehow, our trains are also known to be the punctual ones. These cliches might have been true during the “Wirtschaftswunder” - but today, Germans work the fewest hours of any OECD country.

4) Climate Focus. Germany’s government is focused on a largely ideologically driven understanding of climate change prevention. It’s not just that Russian gas is no longer available - in addition all nuclear power plants were shut off. Climate regulation and taxation also adds to rising energy prices and production costs.

5) Worker Rights: Germany has very high levels of worker protections, making it hard to scale workforces up and down and near impossible to dismiss employees for performance reasons.

6) High Taxes. Germany has some of the highest corporation and personal income taxes in the developed world. And while e.g. Scandinavian countries have even higher taxes, in Germany it doesn’t feel like you’re getting something of equal value back from the state. This is of course highly subjective.

7) Few Future Industries. Germany’s industry has focused on gas powered mobility and advanced machine building - and has become a world leader in many of these areas. It has, however, very few software, AI, or other companies that make up the bulk of e.g. the US economic growth.

There’s probably many more - but this might paint a picture from the inside.

replies(6): >>j-krie+o4 >>consta+r5 >>rootbe+tc >>_ph_+1e >>hobofa+Ig >>ivan_g+DQ
2. j-krie+o4[view] [source] 2024-06-14 13:37:21
>>wolfra+(OP)
I want to add to point 3)

German's pay a lot of taxes. Living costs and rent are sky high in cities. In the past, I reduced my hours to 28 hours a week because the difference was negligible in taxes paid. I even got money from the government to pay rent because my wage was lower.

There is a real problem where between salary band's, the money after taxes does not change significantly even if you're paid more. Working half a day only is incredibly popular for these reasons (among others). It's gone so far that politicans from all sides are publicly thinking about erasing the possibility for halftime work.

replies(2): >>consta+46 >>gmt202+aa
3. consta+r5[view] [source] 2024-06-14 13:44:50
>>wolfra+(OP)
Most of these are legislative problems, in the sense that they intentionally exist. The legal climate of Germany makes startups nearly impossible, because the German government doesn't want risk takers to exist.

I would also add that I have seen a determined anti-education attitude, especially against STEM education. In stark distinction STEM careers are usually considered "lower class" than civil service careers. This is combined with a truly bizarre anti-education stance by education ministers, who see technology not as something which requires a more educated population, but rather means basic education is less important as "computers can do that".

I also completely disagree on work ethic. In my experience Germans want less hours and more work from home, but are willing to be extremely productive in that time frame.

replies(1): >>wolfra+hc
◧◩
4. consta+46[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-06-14 13:49:45
>>j-krie+o4
The problem really is the progressive tax system, which directly promotes low productivity, since working more usually means lower and lower wages.

I met many engineers who would be completely willing to work more hours, but it makes very little sense as you are working the additional hours for far lower wages.

The idea of banning lower work times is new to me, but seems in line with the German government approach to invent an anti-solution to the problem with severe potential downsides (e.g. for parents).

replies(2): >>j-krie+dl >>hobofa+Vn
◧◩
5. gmt202+aa[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-06-14 14:17:27
>>j-krie+o4
In the UK, the loss of subsidised childcare and tax free allowances creates an effective marginal tax rate of over 100% for a parent earning £100,000-£125,000.
◧◩
6. wolfra+hc[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-06-14 14:31:45
>>consta+r5
Just wanted to share the related Wikipedia article. Germans do - factually - work fewer hours annually than any other developed nation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_a...
7. rootbe+tc[view] [source] 2024-06-14 14:33:02
>>wolfra+(OP)
> Mindset and Culture

Every time I’m in Germany it astounds me how defeatist the German mindset is when it comes to taking risks, nobody wants to run a business or compete with the big guys because they just assume they will automatically lose.

8. _ph_+1e[view] [source] 2024-06-14 14:43:49
>>wolfra+(OP)
No, the government isn't "on a largely ideologically driven understanding of climate change prevention". The shutdown of the nuclear reactors was decided by the previous government in 2011 and never reconsidered. Yes, as part of the war against Ukraine, Russia cut their gas deliveries to Germany. We managed to find other suppliers, but at least short term, sport market priced for gas went high up. This has by now settled down to about pre-war prices. In parallel, the ramp up of renewables was accelerated. In Q1 2024, 60% of the electricity was renewable.
replies(1): >>IAMMid+Ci1
9. hobofa+Ig[view] [source] 2024-06-14 15:02:15
>>wolfra+(OP)
Essentially all your points have "always" been true for Germany, so trying to paint them as causes for Germany's economy "going down the drain" (also a very much debatable assessment) is very reductive.

The points you are making sound a lot more like what you would find as political campaigning talking points for deregulation than what's actually transpiring with the German economy.

To 1): Entrepreneurship has always been a lot lower in Germany as in many other countries, as it's not seen as e.g. a capitalist virtue as in the US. The German economic model with it's widespread Mittelstand works well with few entrepeneurs and a large portion of the population working in those enterprises. Not everyone has to be a small entrepeneur and hustle all the time.

To 2): Again, basically the same as it has always been. For the typical company there isn't any more "government interference in the most minute details of running a business" than 20-30 years ago. One also has to keep in mind that (as in most countries) that as long as you are making money and act in good faith according to the spirit of the law, the regulatory bodies are a lot more bendy than one might assume according to the letter of the law.

To 5): You can very much scale your workforce up and down. Limited time contracts and long trial periods are very common. On a larger scale that is typically done via subcontractor structures. Also the typical reasons for wanting to scale down (economic non-viability) are permissible reasons for letting people go. It's also very much possible to fire people for under-performance (you just have to go through the motions of tracking their performance and comparing it to peers or documenting their non-compliance). The only stories I'm actually still hearing in the wild of people not being able to be fired is about "Beamte" (public servants).

◧◩◪
10. j-krie+dl[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-06-14 15:38:51
>>consta+46
Here are my sources: [1] Robert Habeck, our Minister for economic affairs say's we can not afford less work. [2] Saxony's Minister arguing for "40 hours workweeks for all" and say's that "part time is a mistake". [4] is Markus Söder, Bavaria's Minister telling his plans to force Teachers to work more [5].

This is a manifold problem. Low post-tax wages (except for some government workers), high stress due to few colleagues and tons of work, extremely late age of entry for pensions.

[1]: https://www.businessinsider.de/wirtschaft/faktencheck-robert...

[2]: https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/recht-auf-teilzeit-als-f...

[3]: https://www.fr.de/politik/cdu-michael-kretschmer-sachsen-rec...

[5]: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/bayern/bayern-lehrer-soeder-teil...

◧◩◪
11. hobofa+Vn[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-06-14 16:01:54
>>consta+46
> I met many engineers who would be completely willing to work more hours, but it makes very little sense as you are working the additional hours for far lower wages.

"Far" lower wages? Progressive income tax is constant at 42% for essentially the whole salary range that is relevant for an engineer (66-278k).

As a concrete example, total tax burden at:

- 70k is ~40% (42k net)

- 100k with ~44% (56k net)

- 200k with ~46% (107k net)

I'd seriously question the judgement of any engineer that chooses e.g. the part time job that gives you 42k net over the full time job that gives you 56k net (= significant difference of possible living conditions/disposable income) _purely_ on the basis that you earn "far" less per additional Euro. (I think it would be very understandable to choose the less work hours just for having more free time to spend on other things.)

I feel like there is almost an inverse effect once you hit the limit on social contributions (~90k), where it becomes more motivating to earn more, as from that point "only" your income tax increases and health insurance etc. stays steady.

replies(3): >>consta+Bq >>marcus+qM >>j-krie+bw6
◧◩◪◨
12. consta+Bq[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-06-14 16:21:54
>>hobofa+Vn
>I'd seriously question the judgement of any engineer that chooses e.g. the part time job that gives you 42k net over the full time job that gives you 56k net (= significant difference of possible living conditions/disposable income) _purely_ on the basis that you earn "far" less per additional Euro.

Of course not just because of that. They look at the money they earn, the money they need to live and see that if they reduce their expenses a bit, they can easily do with less hours. The 66k really is interesting, because starting wages are below that (my first job was 55k), but with experience you can easily get into that range. If that happens your income before taxes significantly increase, but your hourly compensation after taxes not as much and so you obviously have to ask yourself whether the additional hours are worth it or whether you can make do with less.

Additionally it makes employers where you generally work less hours (e.g. VW) more attractive. But obviously this has an effect on productivity per person.

◧◩◪◨
13. marcus+qM[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-06-14 18:30:12
>>hobofa+Vn
That's only part of the equation though.

If lower income means you qualify for subsidized housing, subsidized childcare, etc then that can be a big incentive.

I have two sisters with very similar lifestyles despite grossly different incomes. My low-income sister gets her housing, groceries, utilities, childcare and even phone paid for by government programs. My other sister (near median income) lives in an apartment of similar size and quality, buys similar groceries, etc but pays for all of it from her wages.

My low-income sister has no real incentive to increase her official income (although she does value informal economy "hustles" and side-gigs which directly give her disposable income).

replies(1): >>hobofa+PR
14. ivan_g+DQ[view] [source] 2024-06-14 18:55:01
>>wolfra+(OP)
I agree with all of that with a few corrections:

4. Climate change-related policy that doesn’t make sense is the new law about heating systems, not nuclear power shutdown. Nuclear power in Europe is risky and very expensive, not least because our supply chain is not secure. Neither African, not Russian/Kazakh uranium are a good option. We still have room for more renewables and they are good.

5. That’s not a bad thing, just very un-American. I have seen plenty of layoffs in IT sector here, it’s not that hard to do it. However overhiring to do a layoff in one year is also the most stupid thing that happened in the last 5 years. I doubt that having too much flexibility does help the business. Maybe managers need to be smarter a bit and use available resources more wisely instead.

◧◩◪◨⬒
15. hobofa+PR[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-06-14 19:01:22
>>marcus+qM
Yes, for low income brackets (and certain constellations with partners, kids an joint filing) where you face subsidy cliffs, I can see that being an issue.

However that was not at all what OP argued with engineering salaries and progressive income tax leading to "far less" net income per additional hour worked. The issue you brought up has much more to do with hard subsidy cliffs and high cost of living eating up the disposable income for low income households.

◧◩
16. IAMMid+Ci1[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-06-14 21:58:16
>>_ph_+1e
Your answer is a non sequitor.

The shutdown of the nuclear reactors was an ideologically driven decision by the last government and the last government before that.

Energy prices are extremely high which damages the German economy. Renewables depend on massive subsidies that Germany can't afford less and less.

Oh and Gas: Switching supplier from Russia to Qatar wasn't a brilliant decision. You just replace an adversarial supplier with another one. Thats really no reason to pat yourself on the shoulder. Its an extremely short term decision.

replies(1): >>_ph_+im1
◧◩◪
17. _ph_+im1[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-06-14 22:28:56
>>IAMMid+Ci1
You are using the word "ideology". That isn't the hallmark of good arguments. But may be we can agree onto that the current government is trying to fix all the problems caused by the previous one. The problem wasn't shutting down the mostly old nuclear reactors, the problem was curbing the ramp up of renewables. But fortunately, the current government is fixing that. Which brings energy prices down and while currently we are hit by many factors, quickly can become a big support for Germanys economy. It might be expensive leading a trend, but it does pay of long term.
◧◩◪◨
18. j-krie+bw6[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-06-17 13:46:25
>>hobofa+Vn
This is not the whole truth. You'll get actively punished the higher your salary is. At the 100k Euro mark you will lose all government subsidies and the worst part is that the government will stop paying for elderly care for your parents. Instead, you will be forced to. Independent of your relationships with them. 100k sounds like a lot but you'll be left with 55-60k Euro after taxis, with elderly care being above 3000 euro a month for one parent only.
[go to top]