zlacker

The article focuses only on the near time statistics and is missing out the long term statistics as well as effects of the COVID19 pandemic.

The effects of the COVID19 pandemic were that the bankruptcies law was temporarily changed, which had the effect that companies that were already on a way to bankruptcy could live longer. That is also the reason why in 2020 the numbers were at a low point for almost 20 years. Then in 2021 the numbers soared. So the the 2024 prediction will be still lower than the 2021 numbers.

The long term view can be seen here: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/4898/umfrage/...

>>PinguT+(OP)
I wonder how many of those companies already operated on the brink of insolvency before COVID.

>>PinguT+(OP)
Financial journalism that reports a single data point, out of context, without even a historical chart, are a pet peeve of mine.

Even worse if they spin a complicated narrative based on this single data point that isn't supported by the broader context.

>>HPsqua+p2
And then you realize that outside your peeve it's also bullshit all the way down.

https://www.epsilontheory.com/gell-mann-amnesia/

>>PinguT+(OP)
Not only does the article mention that

"They are also 11.2% more than in the first quarter of 2020 when 4,683 corporate insolvencies were filed before the COVID-19 pandemic had its full impact. The coronavirus pandemic period itself saw special, temporary regulations introduced and low insolvency rates."

Your own statista link shows that the number of bankruptcies was steadily decreasing between 2010-2019, now it's going up again.

>>PinguT+(OP)
There are some German articles that do talk about it in a bit more detail [0].

It's a mix of reasons 1) Covid grants that delayed bankruptcies, 2) Increase of VAT back to 19% for hospitality industries, 3) Increase in construction costs for construction companies, 4) inflation, 5) disruption in trade

And this is not just traditional industries, even 1 in 10 startups risk bankruptcy. [1]

[0] https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/konjunktur/studie-insol...

[1] https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/insolvenzen...

>>Animat+v7
The high was between 2006 and 2011 (including both years). Interestingly it started way before the financial crises, when the interest rates were still high. The with the cheap money as the interest rates were declining year over year the bankruptcy rates were declining as well. A common understand of this is, because companies that were on a decline anyways could live longer because they were able to borrow cheap money. But this didn't really helped the companies to reinvent themselves it helped them to stay afloat. But at one point, they cannot live anymore.

So finally it is some kind of a cleanup. But it doesn't mean that the bankruptcy numbers soar.

Try to take a look into the startup arena. Does the number of bankruptcies in startups soar, because the time of cheap money is over? Or is it more that the numbers are coming back into a normal level and in the last years of cheap money, it was too easy to keep companies afloat, which never really had a sustainable business model.

>>tchall+t8
> And this is not just traditional industries, even 1 in 10 startups risk bankruptcy. [1]

That seems incredibly low though, even 10 years ago (and not specific to Germany) only 1 in 10 startups succeeded. [0]

[0] https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilpatel/2015/01/16/90-of-star...