I haven't seen the commercial, but I feel like it's also probably not identical. My read of the case is that the context connecting Midler to the ad without her consent was a key feature, which makes me think Scarlett Johansson would be in a similarly strong position if she brought a case.
But ultimately I'm also not sure. There are some differences that courts could find important. I hope she sues and refuses to settle, so we can find out!