Won’t beat HF radio though.
My guess is the real latency depends mostly on the latency of relay nodes (either satellites or routers on earth), not the medium through which signals travel.
I see folks in the Pentagon doing a collective /phew that this project is online in the next decade, multiple times.
"The speed of light in air is about 299,705 kilometers per second, or 2.99705 × 10^8 meters per second. This is almost as fast as light travels in a vacuum, slowing down by only three ten-thousandths of the speed of light."
So seems like the speed of light in atmosphere is still a lot faster than fiber.
On top of that, you may have queuing in each satellite.
Finally, the satellite laser links aren’t pointing exactly in the direction you want to your packets to travel. They’re at some diagonal, and the packets need to tack back and forth, which wastes distance. Think the streets of Manhattan.
There was company recently wanting to do high-frequency trading on HF because of the quickest path.
Some big ISPs here refused to locally peer with some cheaper providers, so some packets to a local data centre (5 miles away) in Toronto would round trip through Chicago and back.
If they wanted a direct connection; they wanted them to pay for transit.
This would be huge for realtime gaming across continents.
You say sans routing latencies, but these are very much significant for intercontinental communication:
I get 6ms ping to AWS eu-central, which is less than 100km by air from me. I get 114ms to AWS us-east-1, which is roughly 6500km. Now 6500km / (2/3 * c) = ~32ms. So if there were a fibre running in a straight line, time in the fibre would be 32ms. Of course it isn't running in a straight line, so let's say 50ms are pure "light traveling through fibre". Switching all of that to hollow-core would cut that to 33ms, so that's a savings of 17ms or roughly 15% of my total latency.
This is still a very nice savings, but very far off from cutting latency in half.
(Also, it's a single hop from my company network to DE-CIX, one of the largest internet exchanges in the world, so I feel confident saying my results aren't skewed by a bad uplink.)