I don't disagree with 90% of what you said, I just dont understand what you think the criteria for "mattering" is. What would mattering look like or not? If the question is if Elon's flamboyant behavior has impacted his bank account, I think the answer is clearly yes, to the tune of 10s of billions of dollars.
If the question is if the consequences of his behavior are terminal for his companies, then I think chances are miniscule that any of it will matter. If meaningful consequences would be Elon plagued by regrets and misery, I think the answer is obviously not.
My criteria would be is he hindered in a material way from his goals. Clearly loss of income from liberals does not matter given the resources he and his companies have already.
If he were in Europe, i'd imagine there would have been attempts to break up his companies way before it got to this point. That would force him to choose what he really wants to do.
Maybe attempts to restrict him or people like him from getting to this point where he has so much sway. There is this idea on the left that "billionaires are a failure in policy".
The actions the Swedish union are taking against Tesla are very late but are a positive step towards clawing back some of that power but the actual pain that Musk has to endure has to come from the US.....and it will not be coming any time soon.