zlacker

Climate change is a catastrophe, but it's not going to be the apocalypse and if we keep working on mititgation, there is a good chance it will merely be a "normal" scale disaster.

For example - it's possible that tundra methane emissions in many areas could be mitigated relatively quickly by the regrowth of birch and pine scrubland whose increased evapotranspiration will reduce water tables and eliminate methane emissions. And aboveground carbon sequestration in woody tree mass could outweigh losses from belowground oxidation. This already occurs in fenlands in Southern Finland (paper I read)

We don't know enough about methane hydrates to assess their stability.

Many ecosystems will be reasonably resilient to climate change - maybe up to 2/3 of them, although some specific species groups like tropical amphibians are going to have a really bad time.

>>hnmull+(OP)
What was that story about a frog which was slowly boiled in a pot and didn't know it about it until it was too late?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7069279/

>>pk-pro+R
Oh the frog knows in our case, it knows perfectly well. But it's so nice and warm in the pot and freezing outside, plus it's sure that if it concentrates real hard it'll come up with a solution to being cooked alive while still being able to stay in the pot.

>>pk-pro+R
Funny how everyone always leaves out the part where in the original experiment, said frog's brain was removed before putting it in the pot :)

>>pk-pro+R
Maybe we can stretch the metaphor to a number of frogs in the pot, and the frogs need to work collectively to escape the pot. It is hotter in the middle of the pot, the frogs there are already in the panic, while the frogs at the sides are like "I sincerely hope you get the help you need. You dont have to feel like that."

>>hnmull+(OP)
Not a biologist, but won't the tropical amphibians migrate away from the equator? It seems to me that polar bears and penguins have bigger problems

>>qayxc+q3
Well that only makes it even more relevant.

>>evandi+F3
Amphibians have low dispersal speeds. Precipitation changes are a big driver, more than temperature:

Paper reference:

https://www.jstor.org/stable/40419628