zlacker

Proven means all parts needed for the realisation of the risk are known and shown to exist (at least in principle, in a lab etc.). There can be some middle ground where a large part is known and shown to exist (biological risks, for example).), but not all.

No in relation to my edit, because we have no existing mechanism for the AGI risk to happen. We have hypotheses about what an AGI could or could not do. It could all be incorrect. Playing around with likelihoods that have no basis in reality isn't helping there.

Where we have known and fully understood risks and we can actually estimate a probability there we might use that somewhat to guide efforts (but that invites potentially complacency that is deadly).