zlacker

If I weren't so adverse to conspiracy theories, I would think that this is all a big "coup" by Microsoft: Ilya conspired with Microsoft and Altman to get him fired by the board, just to make it easy for Microsoft to hire him back without fear of retaliation, along with all the engineers that would join him in the process.

Then, Ilya would apologize publicly for "making a huge mistake" and, after some period, would join Microsoft as well, effectively robbing OpenAI from everything of value. The motive? Unlocking the full financial potential of ChatGPT, which was until then locked down by the non-profit nature of its owner.

Of course, in this context, the $10 billion deal between Microsoft and OpenAI is part of the scheme, especially the part where Microsoft has full rights over ChatGPT IP, so that they can just fork the whole codebase and take it from there, leaving OpenAI in the dust.

But no, that's not possible.

>>jurgen+(OP)
No, I don’t think there’s any grand conspiracy, but certainly MS was interested in leapfrogging Google by capturing the value from OpenAI from day one. As things began to fall apart there MS had vast amounts of money to throw at people to bring them into alignment. The idea of a buyout was probably on the table from day one, but not possible till now.

If there’s a warning, it’s to be very careful when choosing your partners and giving them enormous leverage on you.

>>jurgen+(OP)
Will revisit this in a couple months.

>>jurgen+(OP)
Why would they be afraid of retaliation? They didn't sign sports contracts, they can just resign anytime, no? That just seems to overcomplicate things.

>>dougmw+n2
Sometimes you win and sometimes you learn. I think in this case MS is winning.

>>jurgen+(OP)
Yeah, there's no way this is a plan, but for sure this works out nicely.

>>jurgen+(OP)
Conspiracy theories that involve reptilian overlords and ancient aliens are suspect. Conspiracy theories that involve collusion to makes massive amounts of money are expected and should be the treated as the most likely scenario. Occam's razor does not apply to human behavior, as humans will do the most twisted things to gain power and wealth.

My theory of what happened is identical to yours, and is frankly one of the only theories that makes any sense. Everything else points to these people being mentally ill and irrational, and their success technically and monetarily does not point to that. It would be absurd to think they clown-showed themselves into billions of dollars.

>>jurgen+(OP)
I mean, I don't actually believe this. But I am reminded of 2016 when the Turkish president headed off a "coup" and cemented his power.

More likely, this is a case of not letting a good crisis go to waste. I feel the board was probably watching their control over OpenAI slip away into the hands of Altman. They probably recognized that they had a shrinking window to refocus the company along lines they felt was in the spirit of the original non-profit charter.

However, it seems that they completely misjudged the feelings of their employees as well as the PR ability of Altman. No matter how many employees actually would prefer the original charter, social pressure is going to cause most employees to go with the crowd. The media is literally counting names at this point. People will notice those who don't sign, almost like a loyalty pledge.

However, Ilya's role in all of this remains a mystery. Why did he vote to oust Altman and Brockman? Why has he now recanted? That is a bigger mystery to me than why the board took this action in the first place.