According to the latest developments, "nearly 500 employees of OpenAI have signed a letter saying they may quit and join Sam Altman unless the startup's board resigns and reappoints the ousted CEO". That seems like it's probably higher than your 20% estimate.
https://www.wired.com/story/openai-staff-walk-protest-sam-al...
>>dorkwo+(OP)
Maybe some will come out of loyalty. But then again, when you look at the choice of becoming a MS employee vs. being poached by FAIR, Google Brain or Deepmind, it's no guarantee all 500 will come over to follow the sales guys.
>>caycep+Lz
Many of them game from Google. Furthermore, if the choice is "create AI that no one ever uses" vs "create AI that people use" then it's a no-brainer to go with Microsoft. Compute + products + research freedom.