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1. dannyk+(OP)[view] [source] 2023-11-18 03:24:46
Completely agree. Sam is on the phone with Satya as we speak.

Alternative is Sam goes in house to MS who already have all the weights of GPT-4 and build again, but constrained by any existing charter.

replies(1): >>andrew+E
2. andrew+E[view] [source] 2023-11-18 03:28:50
>>dannyk+(OP)
The most likely outcome at this stage IMO is Sam will start a new thing with a huge equity stake and just do it again.
replies(1): >>dinobo+p5
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3. dinobo+p5[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-18 04:06:44
>>andrew+E
Sam is not an engineer. He can't do it without Ilya or Ilya-lite. And there are like 4 of those in the world.
replies(2): >>andrew+g6 >>bushba+Y7
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4. andrew+g6[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-18 04:14:04
>>dinobo+p5
>>He can't do it without Ilya or Ilya-lite.

The wrongest thing I've read on HN for a long while.

The world has alot more smart people in it than you realise, and Sam's rockstar profile gives him direct access to them.

replies(2): >>dinobo+79 >>bart_s+bo
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5. bushba+Y7[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-18 04:27:05
>>dinobo+p5
And Ilya can't do anything without lots of funding, which is given on premise of future profits.
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6. dinobo+79[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-18 04:34:31
>>andrew+g6
How many people do you think are capable of pushing the state of the art in AI research?

There is a massive amount of tooling and infrastructure involved. You can't just get some Andrew Ng Coursera guy off the street and buy 50,000 H100s at your local Fry's electronics. I wouldn't be surprised if there aren't even enough GPUs in the world for Altman to start a competitor in a reasonable amount of time.

I stand by my number, there are like 4 people in the world capable of building OpenAI. That is, a quality deep learning organization that pushes the state of the art in AI and LLMs.

Maybe you can find ~1,000 people in the world who can build a cheap knock-off that gets you to GPT3 (pre instruct) performance after about two years. But even that is no trivial effort.

replies(1): >>dannyk+Dc
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7. dannyk+Dc[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-18 04:57:04
>>dinobo+79
Did you see Greg Brockmann also quit? Who do you think has contributed more to OpenAI code base??
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8. bart_s+bo[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-18 06:28:59
>>andrew+g6
I agree that it’s far than a one man show at OpenAI, but on the other hand megacorps full of many of the smartest, best compensated research scientists and engineers haven’t been able to touch OpenAI at this point, even with much greater resources. There is a significant advantage that OpenAI has built for themselves with their research and development.
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