zlacker

My theory as a pure AGI researcher-- it's because of the AGI lies OpenAI was built on, largely due to Sam.

On one hand, OpenAI is completely (financially) premised on the belief that AGI will change everything, 100x return, etc. but then why did they give up so much control/equity to Microsoft for their money?

Sam finally recently admitted that for OpenAI to achieve AGI they "need another breakthrough," so my guess it's this lie that cost him his sandcastle. I know as a researcher than OpenAI and Sam specifically were lying about AGI.

Screenshot of Sam's quote RE needing another breakthrough for AGI: https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_pr... source: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/has-sam-altman-gone-full-g...

>>mi3law+(OP)
OpenAI's board and leadership is made up of plenty of actual AI researchers and experts (e.g. Ilya Sutskever) while Altman is at best a company caretaker. Why would he get fired for statements that they likely directed him to make?

>>mi3law+(OP)
You could easily take the complete opposite conclusion and say the "need another breakthrough" was him breaking kayfabe that cost him the job.

>>mi3law+(OP)
Making incorrect predictions about the future of AGI is not a "lie." It's certainly not something that gets the CEO of one of the hottest and fastest growing companies in the tech industry fired. Also, OpenAI is not financially premised on AGI either. They have an extremely successful product that they can, and do, charge money for.

>>mi3law+(OP)
You could easily take the opposite conclusion and say the "needs another breakthrough" was him breaking kayfabe which cost him his job.

>>mi3law+(OP)
This does not seem to be nearly enough to prompt for the board to fire him though

Nor controversial enough to have such an impact on recent and future business.

>>mi3law+(OP)
Being honest about the technical difficulties of building the most important invention in human history surely isn't belying prior optimism. I'm certain it's not a simple matter of him going "AGI coming real quick board I'm working on it" or something trivial like that. If the board is so set on getting to AGI, as you claim, then OpenAI's breakthroughs under Sam's direction have done more in credible service of that goal than any other company on the planet so far.

OpenAI, even prior to AGI is seeing 100x+ returns. The ousting almost certainly is not a matter of performance or professional capability. It's a matter of some personal scandal or fundamental, philosophical difference on the fate of AI in the world and safety.

>>fallin+k3
They are completely premised on AGI, especially financially, down to their 100x capped for-profit structure: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#2019:_Transition_from_n...

That you did not know that does not give me confidence in the rest of your argument. Please do your research. There's a LOT of hype to see beyond.

>>paxys+Y2
The statement he mad about AGI needing another breakthrough was not a scripted statement, so I don't think he was directed to make it. Watch it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjpNG0CJRMM&t=3705s

Altman has been at OpenAI since the beginning, and since the beginning OpenAI is heavily premised on AGI/superintelligence.

>>mi3law+ih
You have linked to a description of the strange profit cap model where profits are capped at 100x investment. This makes no mention of AGI

>>mi3law+ih
Please, everybody involved knows chatgpt is nowhere close to agi. There is plenty of money to be made even for the stochastic parrot that it is.

>>atleas+J4
My friend, I agree with you on the source likely being a fundamental or philosophical differences. The lie that I was calling out is that AGI/superintelligence is "the most important invention," and that's philosophical differences I hope the board had with Sam.

There really is no evidence at all for AGI/superintelligence even being possible to claim it's as important as Sam has been shilling.

>>fallin+rA
The profit cap model is so strange because they premised it on the inevitability of AGI/superintelligence.