zlacker

I partially agree. I think the last giant hype cycle around crypto had no pants on the entire time. It was all one giant delusion, and also why I don't think crypto will have step 4-5. It's just dead outside of incredibly niche uses (many of which are crimes).

I also agree that there's something there there with LLMs... but also that it's hopelessly overhyped right now.

Smartphones are a good example of this - nowadays we tend to think about iPhone or BlackBerry as the start of the smartphone "era" - but that wasn't the actual start of smartphones.

The first smartphones were called PDAs, and there was a hype cycle around that! Lots of companies wanted in! But adoption was abysmal and the whole thing fizzled out. BlackBerry and iPhone were the steps 4-5 of that cycle.

The state of LLMs right now is the Palm Pilot. Whiz-bang. Cool. Tons of press. Lots of imagined applications and attempts at mainstream adoption - but honestly nowhere near good enough to achieve mainstream breakout. Died a slow death without fulfilling its most lofty promises, and the space was relegated to a niche status until the actual entrants arrived to actually achieve mainstream success.

I think LLMs will have a step 4-5 with actual mainstream success. I just don't think the current players are it, and also that the vast majority of the current players have no pants on and are just pure grift.