zlacker

You could argue ML is at step 4, but LLMs (called "AI" for some reason) are most definitely in the major hype/dumb money being chucked at it step.

>>baggac+(OP)
“Some reason” is you talk to the thing about anything and it answers and a lot of the time its answers make sense. I’d like to remind you that one year ago this was sci-fi!

>>baggac+(OP)
Incidentally, "AI" (the original field called AI, not the latest definition of the term) definitely made it to 5. Except these days, we call some parts of it "SQL", other parts "the Web".

>>baggac+(OP)
It just happens that they are extremely useful for millions of people.

>>Yoric+1t
I once read an old book talking about AI including something called "expert systems" which are.... human-written if-then-else trees. The saying that we stop calling things "AI" when they become well-understood is real.

>>baggac+(OP)
I'd definitely say LLMs are stuck on step 3: "Failure to live up to the hype"

They are certainly impressive, but their utility-to-hype/gimmick ratio is incredibly low right now, which could cause a crash. The greater the disappointment the greater the crash.

I'm reminded of 3D TVs. Remember those? Avatar came out in 2009. By 2016 the trend was dead. Despite the cries of "this time it's different." Of course, that time it was not different. The tech was impressive. Much more than the previous time the fad was around in the '80s. Remember the blue/red glasses? Absolutely not a single person talks about 3D TV today.

The 3D TV was a technical success but it was too much of a gimmick that it died out. My Facebook feed is a never-ending stream of AI generated garbage. I think people are going to tire of it, realize the images it makes are about as goofy as a 2004 MySpace page, and maybe it will stick around to fill out the useless corporate email and document bureaucracy and boilerplate framework code monkey BS.

But ChatGPT isn't writing Breaking Bad or The Sopranos anytime soon.