The strongest decider in the outcome of the 2016 election is that the Trump campaign spent something like a factor of three more on advertising across the board than the Clinton campaign. Cambridge Analytica was more representative of the notion that the Republicans were willing to spend money on anything that might work than on the efficacy of that specific approach.
At the end of the day, that election came down to a combination of sexism in the voting base (Clinton's gender had a demonstrable effect on turnout among non-voters to vote against her; Americans don't want to admit it but in their hearts they're still pretty sexist) and good old fashioned, well understood rules of how spending on ads can move an election by a percentage point or two. The Democratic party as a whole believed Trump to be so unelectable that they pulled money from the presidential campaign to push it into campaigns down ticket in an attempt to win a massive political coup by controlling the House, Senate, and Presidency at the same time; they underestimated the political position of their opponents and it backfired spectacularly.
It would be more surprising to me if they were uniquely unable to build a working psychological profile of an American voter versus any other voter then the simpler scenario that their entire concept was technological snake oil.
Can you cite your campaign spending numbers? Wikipedia says the opposite: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidentia... I'm searching for a source that says what you claim and can't find any: https://www.google.com/search?q=trump+campaign+advertising+o... https://www.google.com/search?q=trump+outspent+hillary https://www.google.com/search?q=trump+advertising+spending+v... https://www.google.com/search?q=hillary+spent+less+than+trum...
Is my google-fu shit? Maybe. Regardless...
> The Democratic party as a whole believed Trump to be so unelectable that they pulled money from the presidential campaign
The root cause was their arrogance. Hillary was barely campaigning at all. It would not have cost her much anything to call into the major news channels every day^ but instead Hillary was effectively incommunicado for much of 2016. It's as if she thought campaigning was beneath her.
Also, I don't know how you can break apart Americans disliking women in general and Americans disliking Hillary particularly. She personally has been a popular target for derision for more than 20 years before her 2016 campaign. The DNC may have considered Trump unelectable but they were burying their heads in the sand w.r.t. Hillary's own unelectability problem. Which goes back to the arrogance thing..
At least they've figured it out now. Nobody seriously talked about her for 2020 and nobody is seriously suggesting her for 2024.
^ Most of Trump's 'advertising' was given to him for free in this manner, maybe you're assigning some arbitrary dollar value to this news coverage to say he spent more?
It wasn't total spend; it was online campaign spend. "Chaos Monkeys" cites a Bloomberg report on an internal Facebook memo that indicates the Trump campaign ran six million different ads on FB during the campaign and the Clinton campaign ran 1/100th of that amount. So targeted ads were involved, but the targeting approach was very traditional: pay a bunch of advertisers a lot of money to hand-tune ads, see how they perform, re-tune, rinse, repeat. The spend on Cambridge Analytica as a ratio and the effect it had on the total process were both minimal; CA didn't prove to be the "voter whisperer" that the owners made them out to be, and in the long run, the fact that they exfiltrated a bunch of private content from Facebook's datastores isn't as interesting as how the Trump campaign took advantage of the data in Facebook's datastores using the tools Facebook legitimately provides.
One feature the campaign did (according to the author of Chaos Monkeys) find useful was "Lookalike Audiences," which is nothing fancier than crawling the social media graph and expanding an initial targeted ad along friend networks (i.e. if an ad seems to be resonating with you, Facebook's own algorithm, if the advertiser has enabled the feature, will try pushing the ad to your friends and so on). In that sense, the data Facebook collected facilitated a Trump victory, though it wasn't anything more dangerous than the social graph itself... And I don't think the EU is proposing we ban social media or collecting networks of friends at this time.
... though maybe they should? You can do a lot of damage with the information people voluntarily share about who they associate with, if you collect enough of it.
> I don't know how you can break apart Americans disliking women in general and Americans disliking Hillary particularly
A good and fair question. So it turns out one of the largest blocs of votes in the 2016 election was various flavors of Christianity, and they generally chose to vote for a known womanizer and divorcée (with Protestants and Catholics, in particular, voting for Trump by a wide margin over Clinton). This would be considered curious behavior, except scraping the surface only a tiny amount reveals that they are almost 100% unified against the concept of women in a leadership position; some have structural taboos against it, and to some it is an existential threat in the category "God will strike us down for our hubris" because it goes against their notion of a cosmic order. It's ugly and I wish it were not so, but I think most political pundits wildly under-estimated that effect because, as the first woman to be nominated by one of the two major parties in America, their prediction models had no data on what effect it would have. I agree that the fact she already had a political service history that could be criticized (vs. her opponent with no such service) was also a factor, but I don't think it was as large a factor as the voters who turned out with fear of actual divine retribution in their hearts due to their religious beliefs.