zlacker

Russian (and presumably Belarusian) nuclear doctrine is: strike when home territory is substantially threatened/invaded. There's no way that NATO wouldn't give warning of its intent and risk a nuclear exchange.

My guess is what would likely happen is NATO would yell loudly, look like it was ineffective and couldn't decide what to do, but in reality suddenly "Ukraine" would suddenly sink some expensive big ships in the Black Sea or take down a strategic bomber or two, using advanced US/European weaponry, and NATO would shrug and say "Huh. Neat. Wasn't us tho"