It's popular in news articles to report the maximum possible sentence for a crime, but this isn't particularly informative. The federal sentencing guidelines usually give a more clear picture, and my -very much not a lawyer much less a federal criminal defense attorney- quick skim suggests he's looking at more like 1-3 years. Which is closer to your gut reaction. The details will depend also on what kind of plea bargain he negotiated, which we'll find out at sentencing.