1. couldn’t you “just” (yea yea I know) install a cert on all your devices and force all 443 traffic though a proxy (like some corporate networks do)?
2. (Something I’ve been meaning to get around to trying for a while) default-block outgoing connections unless unless the external host was recently resolved for the corresponding internal host via your internal resolver? That seems like it would kill anything that tries to avoid your ad-blocking resolver. It seems like that might block hard-coded addresses too, but that could be a good thing..
That's insufficient. There's nothing stopping a web site (or ad on a website) from forming its own DoH request that bypasses the browser and the port. It can be done entirely within the HTTPS stream.
And with 2), that would work, though you'd probably want to whitelist port 53 so that you can resolve names in the first place. Sounds like it should be effective, though.
The rest is just fear mongering, I'm sorry, not sure how to phrase that more elegantly or politely. I'm not an uber smart domain expert wrt certs, but we shouldn't have to be to know that valid device MITM with certs is a normal use case. And it shouldn't be used as a boogeyman man on layman users.