zlacker

Putin was already effectively doing that, by demanding payment in rubles and making weird terms. If Putin wanted to shut down Nordstream, he'd just stop sending gas. What was Europe going to do, sanction him more?

I can see the US doing it as they've been vocal opponents to nordstream since its inception, I can see Ukraine wanting to do it although I doubt they'd have the resources, might also have been some other rogue European faction wanting out from under Putin's thumb.

>>margin+(OP)
> If Putin wanted to shut down Nordstream, he'd just stop sending gas.

Permanently shutting it down significantly constrains options for anyone who might seize power in Russia next.

>>margin+(OP)
The "Putin did it" hypothesis was that he did it to prevent internal replacement. Suppose that some Russian rival wanted to replace him. They could kill or imprison Putin, end the war in Ukraine, restart the gas pipelines, and have a lot of gas money from Europe to distribute to supporters.

Destroying the pipelines removed the potential reward for an internal rival to replace him.

>>margin+(OP)
The Russians had been claiming in the months before the explosion that sanctions were keeping them from delivering gas, and that Europe needed to back off sanctions if they wanted gas to flow. Europe called them out and said this was obviously a falsehood.

Then the explosions happened, which prevented gas from being transported through the pipelines - except for one Nordstream 2 pipeline, which actually would require Germany to budge for it to be operational. Russia even stated that they'd be happy to send gas through the remaining pipeline as soon as Germany backtracked.

Whether or not you think Russia did it, the explosion had the effect of turning something the Russians had been trying and failing to convince other countries of into a reality.

>>Vintag+vd
> Suppose that some Russian rival

Putin's rivals make Putin look soft. If they do take power, they will end the conflict quickly and definitively.

>>Vintag+vd
Nah, that's too simple an explanation. Someone in China obviously wanted cheap gas, so they had to force the Russians to stop selling to Europe and turn eastward. But it can't be Xi because he was enforcing the lockdown, so must've been someone else. My money's on Jack Ma - rich, powerful, directly interested in getting the economy running at full speed again.

>>margin+(OP)
> If Putin wanted to shut down Nordstream, he'd just stop sending gas.

Indeed, Nordstream hadn't been running gas for about a month at the time of the explosions. (Indeed, Nordstream 2 also never ran gas). That is critically useful information for assessing who had motive to blow up the pipeline, yet everyone speculating on the matter seems to assume that it was being used at the time of explosion.

>>landem+jp
There is no mechanism by which the war can be ended quickly and definitively without global murder-suicide. (Aside from Russia leaving, of course.)

>>archag+rG
Huh? Indiscriminate bombing US-style will do that in a flash.

Heck leveling Kiev will do that too. Could be done in a day.

>>throwA+WR
If Russia levels Kiev and starts moving in to the rest of the country, a) Ukraine will almost certainly not surrender, leading to prolonged insurgency, and b) I expect ground troops from neighbors, EU, and possibly NATO will come into play.

Meanwhile, all the rhetoric of Russia “saving” a brotherly nation goes flying out the window.

>>archag+HS
>Ukraine will almost certainly not surrender

Of course it will.

>ground troops from neighbors, EU, and possibly NATO

They are not suicidal, I don't think.

>Russia “saving” a brotherly nation goes flying out the window

Yes. That is the reason war will continue the way it is now: very slowly, and stupid.

Edit: reddit spacing

>>throwA+rY
> They are not suicidal, I don't think.

I'm afraid something as drastic as the annihilation of Kiev will lead to actions that are beyond the usual risk assessment levels. Countries will be compelled to act, (repeated...) threats of nukes be damned. Europe will not tolerate another Nazi Germany on its borders, period.

Put another way, a massive, discontinuous step in escalation will inevitably lead to a similar step from the other side. There is no world in which Germany and Poland go "OK then" and withdraw all aid.

>>archag+rG
Of course there is. Mass mobilization and a war economy would do the trick. Many of Putin's rivals are calling for exactly that.

Ukraine's military barely held on against 90k professional soldiers and 140k mobilised. It would not stand a single chance against 3 million soldiers and a fully militarized Russian economy. Russia hasn't even called up a tenth of its trained reserves.

>>margin+(OP)
> If Putin wanted to shut down Nordstream, he'd just stop sending gas.

Putin's concern would be the home front.

>>throwA+WR
What extra "indiscriminate bombing" ? Russia has been doing that since last February already, just look at the state of Mariupol...

No, they just don't have the means to escalate this any further (without using nukes).