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1. pydry+(OP)[view] [source] 2023-01-13 10:11:49
>as far as I know, there exists no proven, cheap, scalable technology to store power at grid scale at all

It's called pumped storage.

We dont need as much storage as people think. Solar and wind anti correlate and a vast amount of demand can be time shifted.

replies(2): >>dTal+Z4 >>cinnta+v6
2. dTal+Z4[view] [source] 2023-01-13 11:00:00
>>pydry+(OP)
I was wondering if someone was going mention that. Pumped hydro is great, but it's not scalable. You need favorable geography to make it economical at all, and in the end it doesn't store enough energy to do more than smooth over transient grid fluctuations lasting a few hours. The UK is, relatively speaking, quite well provisioned with pumped hydro - its largest storage facility is Dinorwig in North Wales, which is built into a mountain with very favorable geometry - it has nearly 6 times as much capacity as the next biggest station. It can store enough energy to run the entire UK for... about 16 minutes. That's not going to do the trick if the grid runs entirely off wind and solar and you have a dark, calm day, let alone the weeks at a time that weather can be unfavorable. And there isn't anywhere to put another hundred Dinorwigs, never mind the budget.

It's because of this that there's a lot of talk about wild ideas like pressurizing abandoned mines and so on - there are a lot of mines around. But then we're back to the "proven technology" sticking point.

replies(1): >>pydry+N5
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3. pydry+N5[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-01-13 11:07:31
>>dTal+Z4
The suitable geography is considerably less rare than the nuclear and carbon industries jointly like to pretend. This has been confirmed by multiple studies (I have posted them at least 3 times before because this talking point is sadly rather common).

Nowhere is currently "well" provisioned for pumped hydro given a solar and wind grid coz while they existed for over a hundred years they have never had to store that much energy. Newer, larger ones are being built around the world. Australia will be well provisioned soon.

Go back in time 10 years when solar and wind first became economic and people made similar comments about how little of it there was (1% of total power!), ignoring the unit economics completely. We are at that exact same inflexion point with pumped hydro.

replies(1): >>dTal+j7
4. cinnta+v6[view] [source] 2023-01-13 11:13:30
>>pydry+(OP)
The anticorrelation is mostly on longer timescales. Winter vs summer for example. On a daily or hourly basis the anti correlation is pretty much non existent and it's on these timescales that you would time shift demand. A quite common occurence in Europe is that large parts of Europe during winter have almost non existent air pressure differences for days or weeks on end. During these times neither wind nor solar is very helpful and other solutions are needed, not all European countries have the pumped storage capacity for that. LNG to the rescue I suppose, now that Russia is limiting supply.
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5. dTal+j7[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-01-13 11:21:58
>>pydry+N5
The largest pumped hydro facility in the world is Fengning in China, at 40GWh, and the second largest is Bath County in Virginia, at 24 GWh. Dinorwig's 9GWh is really not too shabby. Even Fengning would only power the UK for just over an hour. This is simply not the same order of magnitude for the storage you'd need to make it through a gray UK winter on renewable energy alone.

What's the longest period without wind and sun you're willing to provision for before you give up and tell the population they'll have to do without electricity for a bit? A day, a week, a month? Numerically, how much storage would that actually need? How many stations, how big? You'd need over a hundred Fengnings to power the UK for a week. Where would they go? I'm all for renewables + storage but you can't handwave these questions as FUD, it's a serious problem.

I suspect that if we committed to categorically eliminating fossil fuels, including peaker plants, the first time the lights went out because the weather was bad you'd have people clamoring to build nuclear power plants. Statistically, it'll happen at some point no matter how much storage you provision.

replies(1): >>pydry+qf
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6. pydry+qf[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-01-13 12:31:51
>>dTal+j7
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/01/21/six-terawatt-hours-of...

6.5 Fengnings or equivalent should be enough for a 94% renewable grid in the UK.

It is well within the same order of magnitude.

>the first time the lights went out because the weather was bad you'd have people clamoring to build nuclear power plants

because why build a solar or wind farm this year when you can instead wait 20 years for hinkley c to be finished at FIVE times the LCOE cost?

it's absurd. the people dont clamor for nuclear power. only the military industrial complex does.

replies(1): >>dTal+zo
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7. dTal+zo[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-01-13 13:35:47
>>pydry+qf
>6.5 Fengnings or equivalent should be enough for a 94% renewable grid in the UK.

That doesn't follow at all from your article, which is about the US. You can't just extrapolate from a different country at a lower latitude with different weather patterns and vastly more space to put things like onshore wind/solar farms without running into NIMBYIsm, not to mention more hours of sunlight just from spanning 4 timezones. 6 hours of storage is not even close to enough for reliable renewable power in the UK. It wouldn't even cover a single windless winter night.

And even if we take it at face value, the scenario you linked involves masses of overbuild, over the course of nearly 30 years ("by 2050"), and still leaves 6% of energy coming from carbon combustion. If we start building nuclear plants now, even if we accept your premise that they take 20 years to build (they needn't, especially with scale), then we can get to zero carbon almost a decade earlier - and with minimal land use.

It's not like it's impossible - France went all in on a nuclear grid.

replies(1): >>pydry+wX
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8. pydry+wX[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-01-13 16:00:28
>>dTal+zo
>That doesn't follow at all from your article, which is about the US. You can't just extrapolate from a different country

This is FUD.

You absolutely can if you are discussing orders of magnitude which we were.

Our fundamental disagreement wasnt about whether it was 8x fengnings or 6.5x but rather whether it was of the order of 65 or 6.5.

>It's not like it's impossible - France went all in on a nuclear grid.

Not impossible, just at great expense and it wasnt worth it. In 5 years less of France's electricity will be nuclear than it is now while still spending vast sums on new plants. They're officially hoping renewables will make up the difference.

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