zlacker

[parent] [thread] 22 comments
1. tzs+(OP)[view] [source] 2022-07-15 02:53:21
> Omicron in general for most people is no worse than the flu, unpleasant but bearable.

Flu in the US kills around 12k to 50k per year, with a particularly bad year every few decades getting up to maybe 80k. Omicron killed somewhere between 150k and 250k in the US in less than a year, and that was with free vaccines that were highly effective against death easily available to pretty much everyone who was not a young child.

That doesn't sound like no worse than the flu to me.

replies(4): >>jussij+d1 >>wonder+P7 >>TeeMas+hh >>rustyb+Ci2
2. jussij+d1[view] [source] 2022-07-15 03:08:00
>>tzs+(OP)
Another big difference is how much pressure COVID can exert on the hospital system. The COVID hospitalization rates are magnitudes larger than the worst ever flu season.
replies(2): >>azinma+I2 >>mrhand+ib
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3. azinma+I2[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-07-15 03:26:48
>>jussij+d1
Don’t forget long covid is estimated at roughly 20%, which is quite significant.
replies(1): >>cf141q+Uy
4. wonder+P7[view] [source] 2022-07-15 04:26:14
>>tzs+(OP)
I am not saying you are wrong and in my original comment I was careful to specify that I was not attempting to downplay its significance. With that said in my personal experience Covid hit me like the flu. I had an elevated temperature for a couple days, was achy and tired. Affected my kids and spouse in the same way. If someone wants to vaccinate their kids, that's their choice and I'll be the last person to disparage that choice. Personally I don't see the need.
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5. mrhand+ib[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-07-15 05:11:15
>>jussij+d1
From covid or with Covid? Covid is treated differently than the flu in healthcare. They naturally have been testing all admissions for Covid. If someone comes in for a broken arm and test positive, then they’re counted against the Covid numbers.

Flu numbers typically are a small sample size and extrapolated based on respiratory-like illness admissions in hospitals nationwide.

replies(2): >>sofixa+zg >>jussij+3O
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6. sofixa+zg[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-07-15 06:15:57
>>mrhand+ib
> If someone comes in for a broken arm and test positive, then they’re counted against the Covid numbers.

You know you have to substantiate such a wild claim, right? Nobody is counting patients with broken arms that happen to have Covid as Covid patients.

replies(3): >>briand+mm >>cf141q+on >>nradov+ax
7. TeeMas+hh[view] [source] 2022-07-15 06:20:52
>>tzs+(OP)
Before covid, doctors were trying desperately to sensibilize people about the danger of the flu to no avail. It was common for flu death to not be marked as such on the death certificate.

But covid is different because it is under the spotlight and faces more scrutinity. And the disctinction as covid being the main cause, a comobidity or a unrelated pathology was never clearly made since the beginning of the pandemic.

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8. briand+mm[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-07-15 07:09:40
>>sofixa+zg
Dr. Birx back in 2020: "If Someone Dies With COVID-19 We Are Counting That As A COVID-19 Death" https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/08/dr_birx_u...

In March 2022 (this year), sleuthing by members of the public into inflated pediatric death counts resulted in the CDC deleting 72k alleged covid deaths, blaming a coding error for the overcount: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/24/cdc-coding-err...

In one county in Colorado, a coroner pointed out that 2 of 5 covid deaths were actually due to gunshot wounds: "Grand County Coroner Raises Concern On Deaths Among COVID Cases" (Dec 2020): https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/grand-county-covid-dea...

The way that a "covid case" or alleged "covid death" has been counted may have improved over the past 2 years, but 70+ thousand purported covid deaths were just admitted to have been illusory a few months ago and there most definitely have been significant financial incentives for hospitals to claim a particular patient had covid and further incentives for specific treatments (remdesivir, placing them on a vent, etc.).

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9. cf141q+on[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-07-15 07:17:48
>>sofixa+zg
This widely varies by countries, as well as often states. It entails what criteria you use for your statistic and how you collect the data. Because unfortunately data collection is one of those things that is assumed to be trivial, but actually quite difficult and costly. Especially in the beginning, you just took the rate of positively tested patients. Because you could do so at a single point in your hospital, the testing center. Figuring out information concerning individual patients means having to collect this information for every individual as well.

Let me also point out that this wasnt some grand failure. We were in a situation in which what ever information we could get was really helpful. But you have to be aware, that there is not magic box somewhere that spits out perfect information. All data collection has its limitations, its why we still know very little about long covid. Because getting that data is incredibly difficult, especially at scale.

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10. nradov+ax[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-07-15 08:54:12
>>sofixa+zg
I don't know why you're asking for substantiation, that is common knowledge to anyone paying attention. Almost half of hospital COVID-19 patients were admitted for something else and only incidentally tested positive on admission.

https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-patients-nyc-hospitals...

replies(2): >>origin+vz >>jussij+3Q
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11. cf141q+Uy[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-07-15 09:18:21
>>azinma+I2
Which vaccines have very little influence on.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01453-0 relating to the study https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01840-0

replies(1): >>azinma+7N2
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12. origin+vz[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-07-15 09:27:53
>>nradov+ax
This is a common problem with COVID-19 threads on HN now. Happened to me several times in the past weeks. It's interesting but also very concerning just how large the knowledge gap has become between people who still support the public health restrictions and everyone else. Almost any fact you present, regardless of how basic or well known you think it is, will run into someone who thinks it's wild and crazy and has never encountered it before. That's true even if it's been admitted in public by the people who literally run the public health response!

The cause seems to be aggressive filter bubbling. We see it above too - there are highly upvoted people saying nothing more than "it can't be true, I don't believe it, it must be a right wing conspiracy". Any information that undermines government narratives just gets mentally erased, causing a distressed reaction of "that claim is CRAZY" to almost any attempt to discuss known data or facts.

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13. jussij+3O[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-07-15 12:04:05
>>mrhand+ib
Someone with a broken arm will most certainly take up a seat in the hospital waiting room, but would be unlikely to be taking up a bed in hospital.

Someone with COVID could well be in hospital for weeks if not months and if things get serious they could end up taking a bed in the ICU.

It would be highly unlikely to see someone in ICU with just a broken arm.

replies(1): >>mrhand+eUa
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14. jussij+3Q[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-07-15 12:24:48
>>nradov+ax
Firstly the date on the link you provided is from Jan 11, 2022, 9:52 AM so it's a little dated when considering a fast moving pandemic.

Further googling reveals this similar headline: "Over 40% of NYC’s COVID-infected hospital patients admitted for other reasons"

This then begs the question, if in fact 60% of people are going to hospital because of COVID that indicates a very big problem.

Hospitals by their design are always meant to be full and their size will be determined based on an expected amount of demand.

If the hospital contains these unexpected COVID cases that then means many people who need to go to hospital will not be going to hospital only because the beds are taken up by these COVID patients.

replies(2): >>wonder+cU >>lavery+qj1
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15. wonder+cU[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-07-15 12:53:00
>>jussij+3Q
Respectfully, I think you are misinterpreting that headline. It's saying that of all the patients that tested positive for covid at the hospital, 40% of them were actually there for another reason. So a guy could be there for a broken arm and test positive for covid while there. He just needs to be treated for the broken arm, not covid.
replies(1): >>jussij+EU2
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16. lavery+qj1[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-07-15 15:31:46
>>jussij+3Q
> Firstly the date on the link you provided is from Jan 11, 2022, 9:52 AM so it's a little dated when considering a fast moving pandemic.

January 2022 would include ~3/4ths of the pandemic's time and deaths so far.

17. rustyb+Ci2[view] [source] 2022-07-15 21:23:36
>>tzs+(OP)
Only 13000 people in the US die of AIDS each year. Is the flu worse than AIDS? How about rabies? Less than five deaths per year in the US. What would you rather have. I'll even concede that Omicron has a higher infection fatality rate than the typical flu strain, but both are well under 1% and those death totals have much more to do with transmissibility than severity.
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18. azinma+7N2[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-07-16 02:52:01
>>cf141q+Uy
That’s not what the thread is about:

> Omicron in general for most people is no worse than the flu, unpleasant but bearable.

replies(1): >>cf141q+xD7
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19. jussij+EU2[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-07-16 04:53:09
>>wonder+cU
If you have just one patient in hospital with COVID and no other ailment that will represent a degradation of the 'normal' operation of the hospital.

If you have 10% of the hospital population in hospital with COVID (and just for COVID) you will have degraded the performance of the hospital by 10%.

This is because hospitals are designed to operate at maximum capacity (i.e all the beds are in use and there is a waiting list to get a bed). Every bed in use by a COVID patient will just add someone to the waiting list.

So my question would be what percentage of patients are in hospital because of COVID and only because of COVID?

That number is a very good measure of the pressure that hospital system will be under and my guess is it will be much greater than 10%.

replies(1): >>nradov+nQ5
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20. nradov+nQ5[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-07-17 13:29:54
>>jussij+EU2
Hospitals are not designed to operate at maximum capacity.
replies(1): >>jussij+Xgf
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21. cf141q+xD7[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-07-18 01:27:10
>>azinma+7N2
I know, i was agreeing with you. The long covid numbers are what makes COVID worse. I was pointing out that there is no way around those.
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22. mrhand+eUa[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-07-19 00:45:38
>>jussij+3O
https://mobile.twitter.com/kerpen/status/1548335911233998848...
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23. jussij+Xgf[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-07-20 08:05:02
>>nradov+nQ5
On any given day, our hospitals — by design — operate at 90 to 100% capacity. That's why we have sought waivers to allow critical access hospitals to operate above their licensed capacity Peel wrote.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/apr/01/jeff-jacks...

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