So what about 0.98 then, or any arbitrary value between 1 and 0? The lower you go, the lower the chance it will bounce back to 1, but the higher your loss if it does. Ultimately it all balances out and each of these bets is just another gamble with no outsized return.
The entire process is fundamentally flawed. No adjustment will fix a faulty premise. Please stop pushing faulty thinking like this.