zlacker

[parent] [thread] 10 comments
1. xtract+(OP)[view] [source] 2022-05-19 09:44:03
This made me think... back in 2012, a startup called Kueski (now a very successful BNPL in Mexico) applied for YC (twice in 2 years). The founders were rejected, even though the business model was sound and the economics were pretty well laid out (I know the CEO and ge is a really meticulous person).

The reason YC gave for the rejection was that Mexico was an unknown market, and they felt lending in there was too risky for them.

Makes me wonder what was the decision logic to accept this Stablegains, against that background it doesn't make any sense.

Was YC aware of the ponzi nature of this thing and decided to dip in? It just makes no sense.

replies(6): >>xnorsw+c >>daveed+28 >>phphph+Mi >>bombca+sn >>lalala+uG >>mytail+qR
2. xnorsw+c[view] [source] 2022-05-19 09:45:48
>>xtract+(OP)
YC invested in Coinbase in 2012. I suspect the success of that investment gave them (false?) confidence in their ability to navigate the crypto landscape in 2022.
3. daveed+28[view] [source] 2022-05-19 11:15:15
>>xtract+(OP)
FWIW YC has changed over the years, both with different partners and a changing startup ecosystem. Geo-based feedback 10 years ago probably isn't relevant now.
4. phphph+Mi[view] [source] 2022-05-19 12:31:14
>>xtract+(OP)
I don’t mean this as a slight against YC, but the world has changed and YC is mostly just a brand now.

YC was unique in that 15 years ago the narrative around raising money was radically different: YC was the only game in town that understood the amount of potential being ignored by traditional investors, and so they had a smorgasbord of excellent opportunities to pick from.

The world is very different now, YC demonstrated that their model worked and nowadays everyone has learned from YC…

…that means there’s no longer this vastly underserved market of brilliant teams that just need a little capital and a little faith and a little guidance, which is the market YC excelled in, nowadays everybody understands that and any competent team could raise money with their eyes closed.

Nowadays getting into YC remains perceived as prestigious but it’s not, really, compared to what it once was: the cycle sizes are huge and the quality has plummeted.

I don’t believe YC, as an organisation, is actively intending to benefit from ponzi-like companies, but YCs thesis (bet on a good team and they will do good things) is very vulnerable to a good team working on a god awful idea that has serious fallout when the market conditions have normalised insane behaviour: a decade ago, StableGains wouldn’t have made it into YC because no YC team would have thought it was sensible.

So, while YC should be held accountable, it’s ultimately a market problem, we’re in a market that values these awful predatory financial propositions, hence almost every prestigious investment organisation has some exposure to this sort of company (it’s just not blown up for all of them, yet, but soon come).

replies(1): >>fartca+ZL
5. bombca+sn[view] [source] 2022-05-19 12:54:42
>>xtract+(OP)
YC is just a VC firm. They avoid known risks and embrace unknown ones: that’s the whole point.

They don’t “understand” Mexico and are scared that their investment will get Pemex’d or something - and since that’s a known financial risk their backers would be like “wtf you doing?”

But “unknown” risks (even if actually quite easy to see) don’t have the same pushback from their investors. In fact, their investors may be demanding that they heavily invest in unknown risks.

replies(2): >>xtract+ms >>rchaud+p62
◧◩
6. xtract+ms[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-05-19 13:22:01
>>bombca+sn
Great answer, thanks!
7. lalala+uG[view] [source] 2022-05-19 14:31:53
>>xtract+(OP)
> Was YC aware of the ponzi nature of this thing and decided to dip in?

It's extremely profitable to invest in a Ponzi if you are early to the scheme.

◧◩
8. fartca+ZL[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-05-19 14:57:06
>>phphph+Mi
Yeah, and unfortunately the YC comment section has a real end days of Slashdot vibe. You can really feel it on these crypto posts.
9. mytail+qR[view] [source] 2022-05-19 15:18:58
>>xtract+(OP)
> The reason YC gave for the rejection was that Mexico was an unknown market, and they felt lending in there was too risky for them.

That's a fair and reasonable reason.

Countries have their own specificities and, very importantly, their own laws an regulations. If you're not familiar the wise move is to stay out.

◧◩
10. rchaud+p62[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-05-19 21:50:37
>>bombca+sn
> But “unknown” risks (even if actually quite easy to see) don’t have the same pushback from their investors.

Malcolm Gladwell had a phrase for this in a 1996 article about a vacation town that favoured hiring temp workers from the Caribbean (Gladwell is part-Caribbean) instead of black Americans who lived in nearby towns.

The employers made a decision on the basis known unknowns and unknown knowns. Gladwell described it thusly:

"Better the ghetto you don't know than the ghetto you know".

replies(1): >>bombca+IU3
◧◩◪
11. bombca+IU3[view] [source] [discussion] 2022-05-20 14:06:26
>>rchaud+p62
Yeah, it really all boils down to "you should have known better" - which is a horrible thing to say in many cases. It's what causes so much friction around hiring ex-felons, etc.
[go to top]