5% of 200,000,000 is 10,000,000.
5% can be a huge number, or a tiny number, depending on what it's 5% of.
I switched from Android to Apple specifically for the iPhone mini, and if they killed it, I would switch to the smallest phone on the market.
Good luck with your switch.
Was a hard decision, because my Android was rooted with LineageOS, was able to block ads and all kinds of nice things.
But ultimately, it just pissed me off too much to carry around a bulky phone (Fairphone 3).
Fairly happy with the 12 mini, just don't like the Apple ecosystem that much.
Let's assume very few people are switching ecosystems at this point based on form factor. That would mean Apple made a new product to cannibalize 5% of their existing market. No similar product exists in the android ecosystem. It seems reasonable that an android phone maker could get similar market share but have these sales come from a combination of their existing sales and competitors sales.
SE is clearly a 'budget' (at least for apple) phone. Some people really want a small phone that isn't.
The newest SE is substantially larger and worse.
I love my mini, but it’s also clear this is the last one.
For example: I upgrade my phone every two years or so, so long as I like the new phones. If I don’t like the new phones, I wait as long as possible.
People that like smaller phones won’t necessarily leave the iPhone if they kill the Mini - they will just keep their current phones for as long as possible. And that can indeed hurt sales, even if Apple doesn’t lose market share.
(Not sure how good this example is, but anyway - flagship doesn't have to be physically giant.)
I tried an iPhone 6S for a year before I got this phone. Couldn't stand the size. The current SE is the same size as the 6S. I'm basically stuck at a dead-end of phone size.
The current SE is not compact by historical standards. I'm not saying all phones need to be smaller, I just want one decent option.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flagship#Flagship_as_metaphor
Now, whether an iPhone Mini fits into that metaphor can be debated, but it's just a metaphor, after all. :-)