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1. FabHK+(OP)[view] [source] 2021-05-07 18:58:56
> Statistically, this is due to both priors rising, proportional to their original values, such that now the sum P(lab escape)+P(natural cause) == 1

Exactly, that's what I was getting at - the prior for lab escape is low, but given that the pandemic happened, it the posterior for lab escape is 1 - posterior for natural.

And we had about as many examples for lab escapes as for natural epidemics in the last few decades, it seems to me.

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