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1. Robotb+(OP)[view] [source] 2021-04-10 02:30:23
I assign non-negligible probability to each of them. I don't know.

But I hate the stupid racism and hate around it. COVID-19 attacked every country. With the exception of, like, New Zealand (but it affected them as well... had to shut down their borders, etc).

These viruses are a threat to all humanity. I just want us to fight them better and help everyone.

I think it's super important that we both simultaneously hold China accountable (rhetorically, in the social sphere at very least) for aggressive expansionary actions (i.e. vs Hong Kong, Taiwan, the Philippines) and human rights abuses (Uighur, etc)...

...while simultaneously trying to help everyone do better, including the Chinese, to face common threats (like novel viruses, climate change, etc). And we must not start up a new Cold War with all its proxy conflicts, death, and unnecessary economic suffering and threat of annihilation.

replies(6): >>krusty+K5 >>spondy+Wa >>nyokod+ue >>sigg3+Tp >>chiefa+tz >>Taniwh+Iz
2. krusty+K5[view] [source] 2021-04-10 03:56:49
>>Robotb+(OP)
Unfortunately, avoiding a new Cold War is something that would take equal effort from both sides. If just one side is eager to wage such a battle, it will happen unless the other side acquiesces at every turn.
replies(1): >>Robotb+z9
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3. Robotb+z9[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-10 04:51:32
>>krusty+K5
Maybe. But annihilating isn’t really in anyone’s interests.
replies(1): >>int_19+fu
4. spondy+Wa[view] [source] 2021-04-10 05:17:37
>>Robotb+(OP)
> But I hate the stupid racism and hate around it. COVID-19 attacked every country. With the exception of, like, New Zealand (but it affected them as well... had to shut down their borders, etc).

As someone who lives in New Zealand, we were still "attacked" by covid all the same. The only difference arguably is the coordinated response from our government compared to others. Some of that is presumably culture too (we don't have a document held to a pseudo-religious standard ie the constitution for example) although being too laid back can have its consequences too if emergency health laws were to be abused in order to infringe on personal freedoms for example

replies(2): >>nyokod+od >>darker+Cx
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5. nyokod+od[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-10 05:54:07
>>spondy+Wa
There was a lot of luck too. Not being a major travel hub meant the virus hadn’t become widespread. The New Zealand government dragged its feet at first and clamped down just in time to prevent a much worse outbreak. If they had waited a few more days the cases likely would have gone exponentially vertical, possibly made it into more vulnerable populations and the death toll would have then increased considerably. I’m very grateful for the luck!
replies(1): >>jashma+hn
6. nyokod+ue[view] [source] 2021-04-10 06:07:57
>>Robotb+(OP)
> But I hate the stupid racism and hate around it.

What is most astonishingly stupid about this particular racism is that while the CCP doesn’t come off looking great in significant ways, Taiwan comes away looking spectacular! Japan, Korea and Vietnam also have a lot to be commended for major aspects of their responses! Asians in the United States have on average done an excellent job of staying safe and therefore keeping our communities safer! The rest of us should be studying their policies and behaviors with a mind to adapt and emulate not having racist delusions.

replies(1): >>soonno+773
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7. jashma+hn[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-10 08:18:30
>>nyokod+od
NZ has extremely high international air traffic. With 11M international passengers per year Auckland airport is comparable with the big US airports like SFO with 13.8M international. Even kiwis often don’t realize just how busy Auckland airport is!
replies(2): >>lostlo+Ax >>nyokod+Rd1
8. sigg3+Tp[view] [source] 2021-04-10 08:55:36
>>Robotb+(OP)
> must not start up a new Cold Way

At least for now, the powers at be seem content just continuing the existing one.

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9. int_19+fu[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-10 09:57:19
>>Robotb+z9
Actually annihilating, no. But a Cold War isn't that - it's a constant threat of such. Which can be very useful to manipulate public opinion - and there are plenty of sociopaths in politics who deem the risks worth the reward.
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10. lostlo+Ax[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-10 10:49:14
>>jashma+hn
Those who had planes flying over our homes know. The various trials the airport conducted with low A380s and other large plane were a nightmare. We aren’t in a typical flight path, but various trials put us in one. I’m not sorry to see that cease.
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11. darker+Cx[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-10 10:49:44
>>spondy+Wa
Being a small island country certainly played a role, no? Not to take anything away from your impressively functional government.
replies(2): >>Robotb+wL >>lostlo+Ho1
12. chiefa+tz[view] [source] 2021-04-10 11:15:32
>>Robotb+(OP)
> These viruses are a threat to all humanity. I just want us to fight them better and help everyone.

It would be more accurate to say: these viruses are a threat to the current socioeconomic and sociopolitical status quo.

Take air travel for instance. It was key to spreading this and other pandemic viruses. Yet no one is questioning air travel. Note: I'm not suggesting it should be shut down, only that the idea of international flights being normalized should be revisited.

Looking at Forbes latest list to the richest people in the world tells us 2020 was a great year for wealth redistribution (from the bottom to the top). It was a great year for the status quo, for the globalists. As for the rest of us? 2020 was not so good.

Ultimately, the virus is a symptom.

replies(1): >>NoImma+YC
13. Taniwh+Iz[view] [source] 2021-04-10 11:17:16
>>Robotb+(OP)
Despite what a lot of people think we had covid here in NZ too, people died - but like China we did a nationwide lockdown and people actually took it seriously, people only went out to buy food for 6 weeks. The government opened its pockets and made sure people, could live and still had jobs when it was over, and the economy was ready to be restarted.
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14. NoImma+YC[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-10 11:59:30
>>chiefa+tz
Nitpick, but important: saying "wealth redistribution (from the bottom to the top)" implies there's a fixed amount of wealth, like a pie, and the "top" are getting a bigger and bigger slice. A lot of people actually think like this, and it's incorrect.

It's more correct to think of e.g. Carlos or Elon as leading efforts to bake lots and lots more pie, and then keeping a lot of the pie for themselves. The dominant theme is that they're creating value that didn't exist before, not taking a larger proportion of already-existing value.

replies(2): >>paledo+8J >>chiefa+5Z
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15. paledo+8J[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-10 13:11:17
>>NoImma+YC
Not true. The people in the middle expand the pie, the people at the top (the 1% of the 1%) eat it. And the people at the bottom are indeed having a harder and harder time.
replies(1): >>NoImma+T12
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16. Robotb+wL[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-10 13:34:02
>>darker+Cx
Being small kind of a bigger deal than being an island. Air travel doesn’t care much if you’re an island or not. The US is practically an island in many senses except for Mexico and Canada, but the virus didn’t come over land, it came over air in multiple places, especially from folks going on Alpine ski trips.

If we had shut down air travel early on globally (not just China...) and pursued a vigorous in-country test and trace program, we would’ve had a chance.

replies(1): >>darker+Ke2
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17. chiefa+5Z[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-10 15:35:07
>>NoImma+YC
If you look at the 2020 data, the last time I checked, that's not what happened.
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18. nyokod+Rd1[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-10 17:17:26
>>jashma+hn
> NZ has extremely high international air traffic.

Maybe per capita but not per se. The US had 241 million international air passengers in 2019[1]. The UK had >160 million[2]. The US has two land borders with significant traffic and the UK had 21.5 million Chunnel passengers in 2019[3]. The volume of passenger shipping is also vastly higher in both countries. NZ also has almost no illegal border crossings.

NZ has a much smaller risk profile than these and many other countries. And this is born out by events. By the time the world became aware of what was happening the virus had already been spreading in Europe and the US for months. While it had been introduced to NZ it was still in much earlier stages.

[1] https://www.bts.gov/newsroom/final-full-year-2019-traffic-da...

[2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/303654/number-of-arrivin...

[3] https://www.statista.com/statistics/304968/number-of-passeng...

replies(1): >>lostlo+iq1
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19. lostlo+Ho1[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-10 18:35:37
>>darker+Cx
I don’t think the ‘island’ part is the important bit, but the ‘small’ might be. Hawaii and the the UK are examples of islands that haven’t done that well.
replies(1): >>darker+0f2
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20. lostlo+iq1[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-10 18:46:16
>>nyokod+Rd1
Keep in mind that NZ is less than a tenth the population of the UK and less than a 60th of USAs. And those figures are for the country, not a city. The point made that Auckland has a lot of travellers.

It is true that in absolute terms NZ has small trade and travel relative to the UK and US, but those factors are far from being the only reasons that NZ has suffered less death and destruction. It’s more that the UK and US have done poorly.

replies(1): >>nyokod+gG1
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21. nyokod+gG1[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-10 20:34:21
>>lostlo+iq1
> Keep in mind that NZ is less than a tenth the population of the UK and less than a 60th of USAs.

Yes, hence my "per capita" comment. The risk of infection getting into a country is more of a function of how much total traffic it gets rather than the per-capita traffic.

> And those figures are for the country, not a city.

Auckland Airport represents the vast majority of all international traffic into New Zealand, and not just flights.

> The point made that Auckland has a lot of travellers.

Not by absolute number which is what matters most for how easy it is for a virus to find its way in and get established domestically.

> It’s more that the UK and US have done poorly.

This is an important point and I do not belittle it at all. My point isn't to defend the USA and the UK but to point out that the difficulty of NZ's response was enormously easier both absolutely and relatively given the nature of NZ's geography and the fact that the local epidemic had barely started by the lockdowns. NZ has a lot to be proud of in its response, but no reason to be smug.

replies(2): >>jashma+6V1 >>lostlo+1a2
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22. jashma+6V1[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-10 22:31:30
>>nyokod+gG1
NZ had swine flu just 10 days after the USA. Covid19 reached New Zealand before Berlin. Even back in 1918 the flu pandemic reached NZ in months at a time when that journey by ship wasn't much faster!
replies(1): >>nyokod+Pc2
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23. NoImma+T12[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-10 23:25:09
>>paledo+8J
I hear what you're saying, and I think it hinges on how you assign credit for making more pie. Did the employee make the pie, or did the person choosing deploying the capital that particular way make the pie?

In any case, the point I think is important, and which I wanted to make, is "more pie, not dividing up the same pie" which works with both our stories.

Edit: oh, and I think it's probably not true that the people at the bottom are having a "harder and harder time". It of course would depend on which metrics you pick, but I generally understand that sort of sentiment as popular in the media but wrong in a Better-Angels-of-our-Nature kind of way. I could believe that people at the bottom are getting a smaller share percentage-wise, but the actual amount of pie they're getting is growing. People are living longer, healthier lives, there's less food insecurity, etc.

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24. lostlo+1a2[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-11 01:11:59
>>nyokod+gG1
> Auckland Airport represents the vast majority of all international traffic into New Zealand, and not just flights.

Yes - and that is a hell of a lot for a small place. It’s comparable to something like SFO, but at the far end of the planet. But yes, the scale is small by international standards.

> the difficulty of NZ's response was enormously easier both absolutely and relatively given the nature of NZ's geography

This helped, but there are a lot more islands that have done poorly. I’m not sure that it was enormously easier, but the few week we got were key. In terms of getting governments to move fast, NZs government moved far faster than one would have expected, and the advantage gained by the short delay due to geography undoubtedly saved us a lot of deaths. We were on a vicious exponential growth.

> NZ has a lot to be proud of in its response, but no reason to be smug.

Absolutely. My view is more one of horror at the considerable reliance placed on gut feeling, belief systems and hope rather than science and cooperation.

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25. nyokod+Pc2[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-11 01:54:56
>>jashma+6V1
> NZ had swine flu just 10 days after the USA.

Correction, NZ had its first cases of swine flu connected directly with travel to Mexico, the epicenter of the pandemic, 10 days after the USA identified its first cases which were community spread. In other words the virus had been circulating for some time in the United States already and just happened to be observed then. Case in point. The US/Mexico border is the most crossed border in the world with 350 million documented crossings annually and undocumented crossings in the 6 figures annually. Each crossing is another chance that the virus gets in and starts spreading domestically which is why the first case was community spread and not associated with travel to Mexico.

> Covid19 reached New Zealand before Berlin.

Maybe the first detected case but considering that Germany had its first detected case in late January in Bavaria a full month before NZ's first case, again directly associated with international travel, the virus very well had opportunity to have already gotten to Berlin and elsewhere undetected.

> Even back in 1918 the flu pandemic reached NZ in months at a time when that journey by ship wasn't much faster!

This was the massive demobilization from WWI with a rush of repatriation from the epicenter of the pandemic which had been active in Europe for some time, Spain was just the first country to admit it had an epidemic. Again, my case in point, NZ was infected long after most of the rest of world because NZ is out of the way. Thank goodness it is.

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26. darker+Ke2[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-11 02:25:24
>>Robotb+wL
Unlikely imo. False reliance on testing has created more issues than it helped. Look at Taiwan (another small island nation). They don't bother testing. If you are sick, it's assumed you have COVID and you quarantine for two weeks. Much smarter and safer imo.

I disagree, and think small island nations do have much better chances. Otherwise we'd probably have great success stories in places like Andorra, Armenia, and Vatican City. I'm sure island countries to be more self reliant, with fewer major transport hubs that can be locked down.

replies(1): >>Robotb+8u3
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27. darker+0f2[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-11 02:28:28
>>lostlo+Ho1
See my other comment. Neither have Andorra, Armenia, or Vatican City.

I think from what we've seen, you need to be a small island nation AND have a strong policy response to have a chance at averting this crisis.

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28. soonno+773[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-11 13:57:58
>>nyokod+ue
Singapore and Thailand also have done quite well so far.
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29. Robotb+8u3[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-11 17:12:47
>>darker+Ke2
Vatican City is not a near-island like the US, tho. It’s a micro state with massive travel to/from the rest of Italy (which was hit early).

Taiwan had high mask usage early on. That would’ve helped a lot in the US.

Testing was very successful, actually, in places like Singapore. Didn’t help that there was official discouragement of wearing masks followed by culture-war mask avoidance in the US.

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