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It's the most obvious one. According to Public Health Canada, men who have sex with men are 71x more likely to become HIV+ during their lives than men who have sex with women. Based on the infection rate modelling of the early 2010s for which we have data, a young gay man in Toronto has about 30% odds of becoming HIV+ in his lifetime.

Wide eyes. Disbelief. That can't possibly be right. With all the people I have watched become HIV+ over the years, it is of course very believable to me. But the data from PHAC is reliable enough, and it speaks for itself. I shouldn't need to make it believable. But of course people are not emotionless abstract rational machines, and that's why I'm doing these sort of talks rather than emailing out memos with charts.

(The good news at least is those numbers are almost certainly coming down with new medical interventions like PrEP, earlier treatment and routine testing, which are my main points these days. I might actually get to be happy with the numbers in the national HIV tracking data when it's compiled for 2021.)