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1. roywig+(OP)[view] [source] 2021-03-22 20:10:33
Well, that's what I mean. Nobody knew COVID was circulating in Italy at the time either. It's easy to miss a new respiratory virus. For it to originate one place and by chance end up exploding in a different metropolitan area doesn't seem unlikely at all.
replies(1): >>Pyramu+s5
2. Pyramu+s5[view] [source] 2021-03-22 20:33:35
>>roywig+(OP)
In fact, simply from a modelling perspective, this is very likely scenario.

If you take an unknown diseases with an R of 2-3, what you will see is a number of smaller clusters, some dying off, before you get the one cluster that becomes the pandemic.

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