zlacker

[parent] [thread] 24 comments
1. Ancapi+(OP)[view] [source] 2021-03-22 18:12:21
> there's just no realistic chance a novel virus coincidentally originates in the same isolated place as a lab that specializes in that exact same type of virus.

I think that it is at least somewhat likely that it was the result of the lab's activities, but your assertion here has a huge dose of selection bias.

If the virology labs studying coronaviruses were placed randomly around the world, you'd be correct - but they're not. They're placed near locations where novel coronaviruses have crossed the species barrier in the past, and where they are likely to do so in the future.

It would be equivalent to say that lighthouses cause ships to run aground, because many teams when ships run aground it's near a lighthouse.

replies(10): >>SpicyL+ej >>is-oug+wk >>goatin+xo >>garmai+Ct >>angio+jB >>autoka+OC >>goatco+zD >>esja+PF >>gregwe+3I >>triple+pe1
2. SpicyL+ej[view] [source] 2021-03-22 19:36:35
>>Ancapi+(OP)
> They're placed near locations where novel coronaviruses have crossed the species barrier in the past, and where they are likely to do so in the future.

Are they? I'm not aware of this trend, or of any other major species barrier crossings in Hubei. (If you're thinking of the original SARS, that started in Guangdong, two provinces to the south.)

3. is-oug+wk[view] [source] 2021-03-22 19:41:40
>>Ancapi+(OP)
Can you link to something that proves this is the criteria used for lab placement?
4. goatin+xo[view] [source] 2021-03-22 19:58:39
>>Ancapi+(OP)
were placed randomly around the world, you'd be correct - but they're not. They're placed near locations

The world’s foremost institute for tropical medicine is in London, England. So that debunks that idea.

replies(1): >>ceejay+Dr
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5. ceejay+Dr[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-03-22 20:10:19
>>goatin+xo
I mean, that's a practical side effect of the fact that England owned much of the tropics for a few centuries.

It's further evidence that these things get sited sensibly, not randomly.

replies(1): >>ALittl+6D
6. garmai+Ct[view] [source] 2021-03-22 20:18:20
>>Ancapi+(OP)
Wuhan is around thousand kilometers away from where this virus supposedly originated from.

But the Wuhan lab did receive samples in 2019 from miners who died in 2012 from an infection of a novel coronavirus that resulted in symptoms very similar to COVID-19.

https://nypost.com/2020/08/15/covid-19-first-appeared-in-chi...

That’s a complete coincidence though and you’re bigoted for thinking there could possibly be a connection! /s

7. angio+jB[view] [source] 2021-03-22 20:50:24
>>Ancapi+(OP)
Another selection bias is that we can't say if the virus originated there, but only that it was first detected there. Even if it originated in the countryside hundreds of miles away it makes sense it was detected only after it spread to a city with the labs to discover the virus.
replies(1): >>ginko+KG
8. autoka+OC[view] [source] 2021-03-22 20:56:01
>>Ancapi+(OP)
china has 100 cities with over a million people in them. Only one has a lab specializing in corona virus research.
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9. ALittl+6D[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-03-22 20:57:08
>>ceejay+Dr
Sensibly, yes, but not their location isn't based on geographic proximity but rather what is a sensible location for the group building and staffing the lab.
10. goatco+zD[view] [source] 2021-03-22 20:58:59
>>Ancapi+(OP)
> It would be equivalent to say that lighthouses cause ships to run aground, because many teams when ships run aground it's near a lighthouse.

But if a lighthouse manufactured coral reefs, and the coral reefs on which ships were running aground displayed features of those that a given lighthouse manufactured, it might be more accurate.

replies(1): >>8note+hG
11. esja+PF[view] [source] 2021-03-22 21:07:53
>>Ancapi+(OP)
Wuhan is nowhere near the caves where these bat viruses have been found. It's over 1800 kilometres to Southwest Yunnan, for example.
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12. 8note+hG[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-03-22 21:09:21
>>goatco+zD
Coral reefs do like to form on sunken ships, so that's still not far off
replies(1): >>goatco+9J
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13. ginko+KG[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-03-22 21:11:11
>>angio+jB
The virus was first sequenced by a lab in Shanghai. The WIV wasn't involved in the discovery of the virus.
replies(1): >>angio+aT
14. gregwe+3I[view] [source] 2021-03-22 21:16:14
>>Ancapi+(OP)
China is a big country. Wuhan is 900km away from the bat caves that are believed to be the breeding ground for these viruses.
replies(1): >>koheri+RL
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15. goatco+9J[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-03-22 21:20:42
>>8note+hG
We may need to look into this further!
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16. koheri+RL[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-03-22 21:33:54
>>gregwe+3I
...but Wuhan is also 0km away from the wet markets that sell meat sourced x00km away near and around the bat caves.
replies(1): >>a9h74j+Pk1
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17. angio+aT[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-03-22 22:04:20
>>ginko+KG
What I mean is that a small countryside hospital won't be able to notice there is a new type of pneumonia, while bigger cities have teams to detect that. It's the same reason why we probably had the virus circulating in europe in january but we only noticed after we started looking for it.
18. triple+pe1[view] [source] 2021-03-23 00:04:54
>>Ancapi+(OP)
People keep saying this, but it's not true; SARS-like viruses haven't been found in nature near Wuhan. In the words of Dr. Shi herself:

> We have done bat virus surveillance in Hubei Province for many years, but have not found that bats in Wuhan or even the wider Hubei Province carry any coronaviruses that are closely related to SARS-CoV-2. I don't think the spillover from bats to humans occurred in Wuhan or in Hubei Province.

https://www.sciencemag.org/sites/default/files/Shi%20Zhengli...

replies(1): >>Siempr+F32
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19. a9h74j+Pk1[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-03-23 00:58:54
>>koheri+RL
I have seen estimates of thousands of wet markets in China and perhaps 10000 in all of Asia. Why the one wet market closest to a lab doing GOF research, and previously questioned on its containment rigor.
replies(1): >>koheri+uL2
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20. Siempr+F32[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-03-23 08:21:28
>>triple+pe1
You've said elsewhere that you think it's reasonable to to suppose they have unpublished samples that are closely related to SARS-CoV-2, indeed that's your central claim. So why do you trust this statement about their sampling results but not the one about not having anything closer than RaTG13 [18.5, p6]?
replies(1): >>triple+ml3
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21. koheri+uL2[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-03-23 14:05:01
>>a9h74j+Pk1
Because it is the largest city near the bat habitat - with the largest wet market.

Wuhan is like Chicago in China. It's not some random small town. If an outbreak occurred in some rural area (which it might have previously), it's possible that it just fizzled out.

Wuhan is a great place for a virus to spread.

replies(1): >>triple+NB3
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22. triple+ml3[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-03-23 17:07:22
>>Siempr+F32
Honestly, I don't fully. From a standpoint of a lab accident, evidence of natural zoonosis near Wuhan would be exculpatory and they'd have no reason to conceal it. But the CCP also seems to be pushing to exclude any origin whatsoever within China, like with their frozen food theory (which is thoroughly rejected by almost all scientists physically outside China, but which the WHO team nonetheless seems to be considering).

So I think it's entirely possible e.g. that China has confidently determined the non-lab origin of SARS-CoV-2, but that it's from an agricultural practice so reckless that they've decided it's better for their reputation to leave everything shrouded in doubt. It's much more obvious to me that China is concealing something than what they're concealing. (Of course, that's usually how concealing stuff works.)

That said, I still think zoonosis near Wuhan is unlikely. In a pre-pandemic publication with no incentive to lie, the WIV studied antibodies to SARS-like viruses in the blood of people living near bats in Yunnan province. They used blood from people living in Wuhan as a negative control:

> As a control, we also collected 240 serum samples from random blood donors in 2015 in Wuhan, Hubei Province more than 1000 km away from Jinning (Fig. 1A) and where inhabitants have a much lower likelihood of contact with bats due to its urban setting.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6178078/

So while it's possible that natural zoonosis did occur in Wuhan, I believe that would require the WIV staff to be genuinely mistaken.

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23. triple+NB3[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-03-23 18:23:37
>>koheri+uL2
Take a look at this on a map. Mojiang (where RaTG13, the closest known relative to SARS-CoV-2, was reportedly sampled) is closer to Chongqing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, or HK than to Wuhan. Pu'er is roughly Chicago-sized, and it's 150 km away. Kunming is more people than two Chicagos, and it's 200 km away. It makes sense that this first emerged in a city, but Wuhan is far from the obvious geographic choice.
replies(1): >>koheri+Ts6
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24. koheri+Ts6[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-03-24 16:26:13
>>triple+NB3
Maybe folks in Mojiand have some immunity because other variants spread there before? Maybe that's why Vietnam (cause Hanoi is close too) have been largely spared. Maybe Wuhan has a bigger market for "wild meat" than rural places - that wouldn't surprise me. Maybe RaTG13 is present in a lot of places. Maybe there are some even closer relatives to sars-cov-2 closer to Wuhan.

Again, none of this is conclusive. It's all speculation. maybe maybe maybe. There are lots of potential ways for this to have happened natually.

replies(1): >>triple+qU6
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25. triple+qU6[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-03-24 18:21:01
>>koheri+Ts6
FWIW, I do suspect cross-immunity will eventually explain a lot of mysteries of this virus, including why the Asia-Pacific region has been so lightly-hit compared to Europe and the Americas. So I do agree it's possible that weaker population immunity in more distant regions more than offsets less frequent spillover, and paradoxically makes them the more likely regions for an outbreak (although that's not what experts including Zhengli Shi had originally guessed).

But there's lots of other distant cities in China too, and none of them have virology institutes with the world's biggest collection of novel SARS-like viruses. So whatever your prior was for lab accident vs. natural, I do believe the location in Wuhan should significantly increase that. Certainly far from conclusive, but a possibility that requires serious investigation.

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