zlacker

[parent] [thread] 32 comments
1. endisn+(OP)[view] [source] 2021-02-13 18:59:16
Forgive my ignorance but even if it was lab created, so what? I don’t really understand why it matters or not. Didn’t the entire world basically have a nearly 3 month heads up on this either way?
replies(10): >>jeswin+t1 >>LMYaho+M1 >>Superm+82 >>throwa+n2 >>katbyt+n3 >>pfortu+G5 >>Frost1+M5 >>pessim+W6 >>LatteL+Qm >>tim333+6F1
â—§
2. jeswin+t1[view] [source] 2021-02-13 19:10:10
>>endisn+(OP)
That depends. Most countries have ratified the biological weapons treaty. If proven to be lab created, the onus will be on them/whoever to prove that this was not part of a weaponization effort. Not to mention, instant loss of goodwill across the world.

Personally, I think the idea of this being lab created by China is far fetched.

replies(3): >>phyalo+09 >>ern+Og >>onetho+Z21
â—§
3. LMYaho+M1[view] [source] 2021-02-13 19:12:09
>>endisn+(OP)
I think there are social/political ramifications to seriously consider.

Similar to if we had a sudden large radiation hazard and it was unclear if it was some spontaneously emerging phenomenon with essentially no direct human cause, or a power plant/enrichment facility/warhead manufacturer/etc.

And beyond that, there are supposedly methods of (even purely scientifically motivated) research that would involve engineering a virus with certain properties that also happen to make it extraordinarily deadly.

Ethics committees determine all sorts of experiments to be prohibitively unethical, and a virus with particularly deadly design should certainly be held under such scrutiny.

replies(1): >>unders+Y7
â—§
4. Superm+82[view] [source] 2021-02-13 19:14:24
>>endisn+(OP)
You are correct. It makes no difference. This has been an exercise in "bad things will happen" used to reform political views and stoke sabre rattling. China is a bad actor in many arenas, just as the US is a bad actor in many arenas. The idea that any country releases some lab-grown bug will never be politically admitted, so the theory is irrelevant.

I tend to think China is a danger to humanity at-large, but I could be wrong. These specific events have not surprised me (new virus, spread, etc) but the sheer amount of incredulity at the behavior of countries (China, US, etc) is disheartening.

replies(1): >>LMYaho+K5
â—§
5. throwa+n2[view] [source] 2021-02-13 19:15:58
>>endisn+(OP)
It’s not necessarily lab created but it could have been leaked from a lab (which studies coronaviruses and bats) even if it wasn’t artificial. It matters because it lays more blame on China and creates the political expediency needed for sanctions. I do agree that there should be consequences for the Chinese government regardless of whether the virus was a leak or not (or artificial or not), and that it isn’t dependent on such investigations. My reason is that the CCP suppressed early reports of the virus and delayed the entire world’s response. They also did not shut down their airports for months and exported the virus to the rest of us as a result.
replies(2): >>pbhjpb+p7 >>Udik+L8
â—§
6. katbyt+n3[view] [source] 2021-02-13 19:23:53
>>endisn+(OP)
If it was leaked in oct that’s far earlier then it making it out into general knowledge in Ja. But granted that doesn’t mean the world would have acted, still took most of it till like March to do anything about it lol
replies(1): >>rossda+id
â—§
7. pfortu+G5[view] [source] 2021-02-13 19:42:05
>>endisn+(OP)
It was supposedly practically impossible for that to happen so at least someone should be held responsible.

Once a guy is dead, does it matter who killed him?

replies(1): >>alacom+IN
â—§â—©
8. LMYaho+K5[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-13 19:42:17
>>Superm+82
While the points you make may be true, they do not conclusively show that it makes no difference. See my response to GP.
replies(1): >>Superm+D62
â—§
9. Frost1+M5[view] [source] 2021-02-13 19:42:22
>>endisn+(OP)
If it was lab created then you know some group intentionally or through their negligence caused millions and millions of people to die. They won't be held accountable unless China itself would decide to do so (assuming in this hypothetical that it was created by China of course).

If it was being developed as a biological weapon you would tend to assume there's likely progress on how to defend against it by those who created it so you could hope to leverage that work to get a head start on vaccines and so forth. No one could force China to hand that work over but they could certainly pressure them in full force, including some of their allies that may also be suffering.

Overall, there's really not much in terms of actionable information to follow through with. It might help states target spies to keep a closer eye on these scenarios and prompt a better global response in the future.

replies(2): >>avalde+j8 >>christ+jh
â—§
10. pessim+W6[view] [source] 2021-02-13 19:52:45
>>endisn+(OP)
The US and Western Europe find it very important to find any way to increase anti-China sentiment. Whether or not it is actually meaningful in a practical sense, accusing China of creating and spreading the virus adds to the ancient enemy status that it shares with Russia, and justifies large domestic expenditures.

The public justification for the giant US nuclear arsenal was the entirely fictional "missile gap," thereby creating an actual missile gap in the other direction that the Soviets thought they had to close. I'm not saying that "If new coronaviruses are being cooked up in Wuhan, we'd be negligent if we weren't funding development of our own" thought processes will necessarily become ascendant, but "China is a existential threat to the world, and any expenditure is justified in order to defeat it" is absolutely common.

â—§â—©
11. pbhjpb+p7[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-13 19:56:07
>>throwa+n2
How does that help the World fight the pandemic? All that does is provide a reason for political actions, that people already want to take, to stem Chinese power and maintain USA imperialism.

If a country choose not to shut its airports doesn't mean your country has to accept incoming flights. If a country thinks people are coming in with a pandemic disease and don't shut the entry points (ports/airports) that's on that country's leadership.

replies(1): >>alacom+rN
â—§â—©
12. unders+Y7[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-13 20:00:47
>>LMYaho+M1
The Chinese response to international concerns over the Wuhan virus is very similar to the Soviet Unions response to the same concern over a sudden spike in nuclear radiation. There’s something strange about a government that works so hard to stifle all questions and dissent. It’s like they don’t realize the act of oppression of inquiry raises the level of inquiry even more.
replies(1): >>reduce+du
â—§â—©
13. avalde+j8[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-13 20:02:06
>>Frost1+M5
> If it was lab created then you know some group intentionally or through their negligence caused millions and millions of people to die.

Just 2.4 millions as today. Not millions and millions. This is not 1918 flu levels (yet).

replies(1): >>jessau+sY
â—§â—©
14. Udik+L8[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-13 20:05:45
>>throwa+n2
> It’s not necessarily lab created but it could have been leaked from a lab (which studies coronaviruses and bats) even if it wasn’t artificial.

I've heard this multiple times as a reasonable possibility, and yet it seems absurd if you think about it: are you trying to accuse someone of leaking into the environment a virus that actually comes from the environment? And how do you even prove something like that?

replies(2): >>alacom+EN >>player+Y31
â—§â—©
15. phyalo+09[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-13 20:07:25
>>jeswin+t1
I used to think it was far fetched too, however applying Occams Razor and taking a read of this incredibly well researched article swayed me https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-esca... it would be worth your time.
replies(1): >>enchir+rk
â—§â—©
16. rossda+id[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-13 20:33:11
>>katbyt+n3
serious vaccine work, as I understand it, began in Jan. If it had started in October 2019, things would be very different right now.
replies(1): >>graeme+xe
â—§â—©â—ª
17. graeme+xe[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-13 20:41:47
>>rossda+id
Not necessarily. The vaccine design work took all of a day, at least for the mrna vaccines.

You could have frontloaded manufacturing by commissioning companies to produce doses while waiting for trials. But we didn’t do that with the knowledge we had, so unclear earlier knowledge would have worked.

Trials were the big bottleneck and for that you need infected patients. So I guess if they had got a vaccine to wuhan for trials it would have sped things up, but not clear it could have been used in trials there before this all seemed serious.

â—§â—©
18. ern+Og[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-13 20:53:29
>>jeswin+t1
I suspect that it’s simpler than that. Having it accidentally leak out of a lab facility where it was being studied for legitimate scientific reasons would still be humiliating, and devastating to Chin’s soft-power.
â—§â—©
19. christ+jh[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-13 20:57:59
>>Frost1+M5
I would think that if you wanted to create a bio weapon then this virus is perfect. Not super lethal but crates a high level of chaos and economic damage. An economical warfare big
â—§â—©â—ª
20. enchir+rk[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-13 21:17:15
>>phyalo+09
Well that was a very long read. Yep I agree, very little doubt it escaped from a lab. The arrogance of the corona virus researchers is astounding.
â—§
21. LatteL+Qm[view] [source] 2021-02-13 21:35:40
>>endisn+(OP)
One of most interesting facets of this to me is that China have created multiple zoonotic diseases in the last few years and caused serious loss of life and economic damage and no one seems to want to say anything!?
â—§â—©â—ª
22. reduce+du[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-13 22:33:50
>>unders+Y7
I'm sure they realize it, but what's the alternative for them?

"Yes, come right in, here's our primary source data collected, it concludes that Chernobyl (or WIV lab leak) did happen..."

replies(1): >>unders+b02
â—§â—©â—ª
23. alacom+rN[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-14 01:25:13
>>pbhjpb+p7
China would be pressured internationally to "foot the bill" for their fuck up...
â—§â—©â—ª
24. alacom+EN[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-14 01:27:16
>>Udik+L8
Whatever the leak was, it was likely something mutated (either naturally or artificially) compared to what is present in the environment.
â—§â—©
25. alacom+IN[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-14 01:27:56
>>pfortu+G5
> Once a guy is dead, does it matter who killed him?

So... murder shouldn't be punished ?

â—§â—©â—ª
26. jessau+sY[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-14 03:49:20
>>avalde+j8
More will die in 2021 than died in 2020. We'll be very lucky if 2022 doesn't see a further increase.
â—§â—©
27. onetho+Z21[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-14 04:50:44
>>jeswin+t1
Even if it was lab leaked... every country studies viruses it's a HUGE jump to conclude it was a weaponisation effort... The facility is next to one of their largest research universities NOT near its military research facilities.

Would China really do top secret illegal bio-weapons research in a lab essentially open to the public?

â—§â—©â—ª
28. player+Y31[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-14 05:04:27
>>Udik+L8
Maybe the environment it came from has virtually no people that come in contact with it (only the specimen collectors) and was later leaked in an environment full of people (Wuhan).
â—§
29. tim333+6F1[view] [source] 2021-02-14 13:16:32
>>endisn+(OP)
As someone mentioned above it matters so you can stop it happening again.
◧◩◪◨
30. unders+b02[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-14 16:06:08
>>reduce+du
That right there would do more to improve Chinese international relations and faith in the Chinese government than anything they could possibly do otherwise. Hands-down. That is what the world demands, and if they wish to be a global player, they are going to half to get along with everyone else
replies(1): >>dirtyi+sS2
â—§â—©â—ª
31. Superm+D62[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-14 16:52:21
>>LMYaho+K5
> I think there are social/political ramifications to seriously consider.

Totally disagree. The political ramifications were apparent the moment the denials and information flow stopped. There's nothing more to be gained. Basic game theory.

replies(1): >>LMYaho+A8b
◧◩◪◨⬒
32. dirtyi+sS2[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-14 22:21:00
>>unders+b02
No, all China has to do is push the origin investigation towards a South Asian country like Laos, Cambodia or Vietnam with large wild game trade. It's scientifically plausible and something Chinese science community suspected / deflected towards early in the outbreak.

Suddenly China's rapid detection and extreme lockdown would literally be properly contextualized as buying the world time, and the Chinese system would be validated beyond measure.

◧◩◪◨
33. LMYaho+A8b[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-02-17 16:58:43
>>Superm+D62
Are you vaguely referring to some principle source of truth you found on this matter?
[go to top]