https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-deaths-from-nat...
I think more people die from diabetes and covid than climate.
Climate change wont directly lead to death, we'll have to adapt, but there are models showing more food produced from climate change. Simply put, we don't know what potentially will happen. We highly suspect there are 150 thousand increase in death from disease due to climate change[2]
In contrast... there are 135 - 270 MILLION people on the verge of starvation now; due to the policies around covid (or >2% of the worlds population).
> “marching towards starvation” spiking from 135 million to 270 million as the pandemic unfolded. He stressed that 2021 will be catastrophic [2]
BTW these people are still getting covid too, lockdowns slowed the spread, didn't stop it. Most American's have already gotten the disease (estimates are that 10x the number of people have gotten it over the tests[3]). Given 25 million have tested positive, by the prior estimates, that means a likely 250 million Americans have already gotten covid [4].
[1] https://www.who.int/heli/risks/climate/climatechange/en/
[2] https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/ga12294.doc.htm
[3] https://www.businessinsider.com/us-coronavirus-cases-deaths-...
I don't think this is a particularly realistic take.
Total global food production hasn't been an issue in hunger in the modern era, so boosting it is immaterial in this context.
Moving it out of existing populated places that are already marginal and have litle export industry to purchase imports with, OTOH, will be disastrous, even if Russia and Canada get a huge boost in arable land.
Considering there are 328 million Americans, that would mean 76% of Americans have had the disease, which I believe would be sufficient for herd immunity. Given what case counts look like, I find that extremely unlikely.
Don't forget that the EU (at the moment) has a higher overall per-capita mortality rate than the US, and it looks like wave 3 is waning in both geographies. Interestingly enough, morbidity figures are much higher in the US, but that could be a self-reporting/self-testing issue, or even false positive rate of the tests, etc.
But the US doesn't have a higher IFR than most European countries. The difference in number of dead has to do with a. the population differences, b. differences in proportion infected.
The gaps between France and the US in per capita deaths, for instance, are not that huge.
For me, 0 - the reason I lockdown is out concern for others, I am not personally worried of the impact Covid would have on me.
The numbers should be going way, way down already, as there are a good number of people who aren't exposing themselves to the virus hardly at all (My wife and I are two of them, but it has to be in the millions of people that are limiting their exposure).
Plus the US has vaccinated >17.5 million people, so subtract that from the population and that 250 million estimate, and there would only be 60 million more people who could catch it (assuming no reinfections).
The newest data I can find on this is from the CDC and they've estimated that through December 2020 that 83 million Americans have been infected[1] (and I saw something dated November 27 where they estimated that 53 million[2] had it, so 30 million new infections in December). To get to that 250 million estimate we would have had to have 167 million new infections in less than a month, or more than tripled all the infections we had up until now. That seems very unlikely.
Also their estimate is that 1 in 4.6 of Covid infections are being reported, not 1 in 10 like that Business Insider article (which is dated July 2020, looks like they revised the ratio since).
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
[2] https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/covid-2020-11-27/card/vNksh...
In all likelihood, yes we are nearing heard immunity and we're done with the illness.
Further, there's an issue with the PCR testing. Though there have been reports since August - October 2020, published in November 2020:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346483715_External_...
Basically, they started over amplifying the DNA and weren't controlling the PCR tests very well. Here's the original WHO warning in December 2020
https://web.archive.org/web/20210102051357/https://www.who.i...
(Since... the page has been deleted, but followed later)
With the official statement January 19, 2020:
https://www.who.int/news/item/19-01-2021-who-information-not...
What you're claiming doesn't pass any sniff test what-so-ever. Low tens of thousands of people die in a typical year from the flu (in the US). The US is seeing that many deaths from Covid every ten days now.
There's no evidence the US is close to herd immunity. Deaths just hit a new daily record high two days ago. Daily case numbers have been raging at present high levels for over six weeks with zero sign of stopping naturally. The vaccines are clearly the only thing that's going to slow it during this season.
My understanding is that it is possible to get covid-19 multiple times. But lack of widespread testing is making it difficult to measure how prevalent this is.
There are also two known strains of covid.
There are a lot of unknowns at this point. We could be dealing with cyclical covid outbreaks for the next decade, the vaccine rollout this summer might eliminate it for good, or we could land somewhere between the two.
I am approaching middle age myself, but I don't think it is fair to limit the lives of people in their teens and twenties for a virus, the median age of death of which is around 80. This policy of COVID restrictions is the biggest betrayal of our youth since May ’68.
There are no flu related illnesses: the 2020-21 winter flu season has not happened.
Here are the results for the last 12 months of WHO's influenza monitoring (you may have to pick a country). They are conducting global testing at or above normal levels:
https://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=1
If you look closely enough at the x-axis, you might be able to see how much flu there is.
Like terrorism was in the 00’s, this is proving very useful for those who want to expand their power via the state.
https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/letters-health-care-prov...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_security_during_the_COVID...
These 2 statements seem to contradict each other. If it's less spread than feared / reported, that would mean it's more deadly than reported.
When talking about case numbers, it’s (very) inflated by the large number of false positives in PCR tests.
When speaking of deaths, at least where I’m around (Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Germany) the reported numbers are people dead who also tested positive for covid-19. I suppose reported deaths work similarity elsewhere.
The claim about 2020 being the best year in decades for those who want to concentrate statist power I guess we can agree to be objectively true.
This looks like a misquote of: "Likewise, David Beasley, Executive Director of the World Food Programme (WFP), warned of alarming global hunger and food insecurity, with the number of people “marching towards starvation” spiking from 135 million to 270 million as the pandemic unfolded." (from https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/ga12294.doc.htm)
[Not that it isn't bad, but it's a doubling of an existing problem from X to 2X, not a new problem of size X-2X]
looking at literally 'global warming' actual temperatures there are examples. 1000 dead in Japan in a summer.
WHO says 250k per year starting 2030 and that's only looking at heat, diarrhea, malnutrition.
Add in pollution deaths (already huge), refugees, war.
Climate change already directly leads to death and it will become more deadly
You may actually be limiting lives more by not locking down.
My view is very coloured by living in New Zealand where aggressive lockdown has lead to normality (with limited international travel and mandatory managed isolation).
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...