zlacker

With asymptomatic transmission the virus likely would have spread unnoticed in the town that was encroaching on bats for a while before someone brought it to Wuhan.

>>rcpt+(OP)
What makes that equally or more likely?

The concentration of early cases in Wuhan, hundreds of kilometers of away, would imply that the asymptomatic traveler(s) only traveled to one city, and didn't infect any other people along the way.

It's possible, but you have to consider the probability of all these events, hence the Bayesian analysis performed here.

>>rcpt+(OP)
Highly unlikely given the distances involved. This would be the equivalent of a disease found in bats native to northern Ohio somehow breaking out down the road from the CDC in Atlanta, Georgia, with no other cities or towns showing traces of breakouts prior.