zlacker

They're probably receiving >$100k worth of attention by making this claim so... I'd like to see more zeroes in the wager.

>>pengar+(OP)
The reason I posted it here is because I think they don't get enough attention from people from the industry who understand biology, statistics and reasoning. They are using the fact that no one challenges them as an evidence that their claims are true.

>>pengar+(OP)
Or just the ability for others too wager against them based on their conclusion. If they think they have a 99% chance of being correct, then let people put 1,000 up against their 100,000.

>>omgwtf+X1
Good point

>>pengar+(OP)
Yeah, the problem with this startup is that the high-minded Bayesianism of their model is going to run up against the crass incentive to make exciting, media-friendly claims. Their track record doesn't seem that rigorous either, they just list a few (like 5) cases where evidence has later supported them: https://www.rootclaim.com/rootclaim_track_record

>>dash2+k5
Their track record seems neither compelling nor skepticism-worthy, I think, often because a lot of their conclusions lined up with already widely accepted hypotheses (e.g. that MMR vaccines don't cause autism and that MH17 was shot down by DNR), and a lot of the controversial things naturally remain unknown.

The most interesting - where public opinion was against and Rootclaim was for, and it was later shown Rootclaim was far more likely to be right - seem to be the deaths of Barry and Honey Sherman [0] and that MH370 vanished due to pilot suicide [1].

I think where the rubber would meet the road is if they're ever shown to be correct about the Syrian chemical attacks [2], where they draw the opposite conclusion Bellingcat did, and of course about the COVID-19 origin.

If they do turn out to be right about those, that would grant them major credibility points, I think; though the conclusions there may never be known one way or another. If they are right about COVID-19, it would also make me view Bret Weinstein with a lot more credibility, since he's been advocating the likelihood of the lab leak hypothesis for a while.

[0] https://www.rootclaim.com/rootclaim_track_record#barry_and_h...

[1] https://www.rootclaim.com/rootclaim_track_record#MH_370

[2] https://www.rootclaim.com/rootclaim_track_record#syrian_chem...

>>meowfa+Nk
Re: Bret Weinstein - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5SRrsr-Iug