zlacker

[parent] [thread] 1 comments
1. johnmo+(OP)[view] [source] 2020-04-27 04:28:05
> Establishing causality can be difficult but not impossible - the standard is "necessary and sufficient". You must show necessity: CO2 increase (for example) is necessary for global warming; if CO2 remains constant, no matter what else happens to the system global temperatures remain constant. And you must also demonstrate sufficiency: temperatures will increase if you increase CO2 while holding everything else constant. Those are experiments that can't be done.

No. What is the basis for these claims?

They're both wrong.

It's not true that CO2 increase is necessary for global warming. If the sun got a lot hotter, global temperatures would rise. If non-CO2 GHGs increased, global temperatures would rise. If the overall albedo of the planet changes, global temperatures can rise. There are literally thousands of things that could cause the temperature to rise.

It's also not true that CO2 increase, holding everything else constant, would lead to long term or even medium term warning. We have no idea what the ecosystem will do for any given change in CO2 levels, since there are countless species both who are net producers and net consumers of atmospheric CO2, all of whom have exponential growth and feedback loops.

Even still, even since both of those claims are wrong, CO2 increase may still cause global warming.

Furthermore, the things you claim are proven, are not proven, they are true by definition. All molecules carry information, and the fact that DNA carries genetic information is a direct consequence of the fact that it is DNA. V=IR by definition. F=ma by definition. There's no such thing as a "force" or "mass" or "acceleration" entity per se, these are metrics that are by definition equal in a given physical framework.

There is no way to 'technically' prove anything in science, and the reasons are simple:

(1) The past is gone - you can't access it

(2) You can't see the future

(3) Your knowledge of the present is extremely limited and inaccurate

These are the limitations of the real world, and science does its best to provide utility within that. It only focuses on making future predictions using the observed past as evidence, because you only can do that. You can't check your model in the present, because you can't instantaneously observe anywhere you aren't already observing. Checking your model on the past relies on what you think happened, i.e. what allegedly happened, but there is absolutely no way to truly know.

You can't even really prove anything 'novel' in mathematics, which is the only place where you can actually prove anything, but even there all proofs are effectively just framing something that was already implied axiomatically in a way that allows our limited human minds to see the relevant/useful patterns that aren't immediately obvious to us.

My point is, acting as though you can truly prove anything in science,

> what's really absurd is to think that no scientific questions can be settled

is not only wrong, but in my opinion is a distraction from what science is actually for. It's not about settling questions. Science is never settled, and that's part of what's beautiful about it. It's about reducing our own ignorance and proving our past selves wrong, discovering patterns and models that equip us with the knowledge to build a better world for ourselves and the rest of humanity.

Why lie about being a great soccer player when you're already great at basketball? Let's focus on the beauty of science as a great journey of growth and exploration that accelerates the progress of humanity, instead of trying to make it do something that isn't possible in the real world.

replies(1): >>mister+p2
2. mister+p2[view] [source] 2020-04-27 05:06:37
>>johnmo+(OP)
> No. What is the basis for these claims?

"Science", as it is represented in the media, and in turn repeated and enforced (not unlike religion, interestingly) on social media and in social circles.

As opposed, of course, to actual science.

"Perception is reality." - Lee Atwater, Republican political strategist.

https://www.cbs46.com/news/perception-is-reality/article_835...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Atwater

"Sauron, enemy of the free peoples of Middle-Earth, was defeated. The Ring passed to Isildur, who had this one chance to destroy evil forever, but the hearts of men are easily corrupted. And the ring of power has a will of its own. It betrayed Isildur, to his death."

"And some things that should not have been forgotten were lost. History became legend. Legend became myth. And for two and a half thousand years, the ring passed out of all knowledge."

https://www.edgestudio.com/node/86110

Threads like this one, and many others like it, well demonstrate the precarious situation we are in at this level. Imagine the state of affairs around the average dinner table. Although, it's not too infrequent to hear the common man admit (which is preceded by realization) that they don't know something. As one moves up the modern day general intelligence curve, this capability seems to diminish. What the exact cause of this is a bit of a mystery (24 hour cable propaganda and the complex dynamics of social media is my best guess) - hopefully someone has noticed it and is doing some research, although I've yet to hear it mentioned anywhere. Rather, it seems we are all content to attribute any misunderstanding that exists in modern society to Fox News, Russia, QAnon, or the alt-right. I'm a bit concerned that this approach may not be the wisest, but I imagine we will find out who's right soon enough.

[go to top]