zlacker

[parent] [thread] 13 comments
1. opport+(OP)[view] [source] 2020-03-17 00:49:40
Why is a buyback worse than a dividend? Both are a form of delivering ROI, it just happens that one is better for shareholders due to the tax system.

In fact if airlines had actually reinvested that money, they would be even more fucked up than they are now. At least now they have free cash flow to make a temporary drop in revenue hurt less. Reinvesting money in the corporate world often involves converting cash flow into debt, which they’re probably going to have to do now to meet their existing financial obligations. Much better than if they were midway through financing some large fleet expansion and had less FCF on hand to weather the travel slowdown

replies(2): >>majorm+r8 >>boombo+V8
2. majorm+r8[view] [source] 2020-03-17 02:05:26
>>opport+(OP)
I don't understand who buybacks are better for. A dividend would've returned money to all the people who held onto shares and wasn't paying attention to how much they should be selling off to capture the buyback and just had all the gains wiped out...
replies(2): >>opport+2a >>toast0+rq
3. boombo+V8[view] [source] 2020-03-17 02:08:34
>>opport+(OP)
>it just happens that one is better for shareholders due to the tax system.

This would make buybacks worse than dividends for everyone who isn't a shareholder.

replies(1): >>opport+a9
◧◩
4. opport+a9[view] [source] [discussion] 2020-03-17 02:10:56
>>boombo+V8
Sure. Just like it's worse for everybody that I try to max my investments in my 401k before contributing to after tax accounts.
replies(2): >>boombo+Ga >>lmm+co
◧◩
5. opport+2a[view] [source] [discussion] 2020-03-17 02:19:27
>>majorm+r8
Absent a market selloff, they're better for shareholders for two reasons: one, it manifests earnings as capital gains/stock appreciation rather than dividends, and two, it has positive future ROI.

Point 1 is not super important because of the existence of qualified dividends.

Point 2 is like this: let's say I'm a company with 1000 outstanding shares valued at $100 each and want to pay a yearly dividend (for simplicity) of $5/share. All market movements notwithstanding and absent any changes, that means I'm basically giving investors a 5% yearly ROI. But, let's say I instead bought back my shares with all my earnings. The first year, I buy back 5% of the outstanding shares. Now there are 950 outstanding shares and total earnings are still $5000/year. Next year each remaining shareholder gets an extra 5% of earnings per share (this compounds). And rather than pay tax each year on dividends, shareholders defer all their taxes until they exit their position.

One argument is that dividends aren't really worse in this case because investors could still choose to spend the cash on purchasing more shares, accomplishing the same thing. But the deferred taxes change the math.

◧◩◪
6. boombo+Ga[view] [source] [discussion] 2020-03-17 02:24:41
>>opport+a9
There's a fairly noticeable difference in scale here for a start, but everyone benefits from you not needing outside assistance in your old age.
◧◩◪
7. lmm+co[view] [source] [discussion] 2020-03-17 04:35:44
>>opport+a9
That tax incentive was set up deliberately. It's socially valuable for people to have retirement savings, so the rest of us are happy to subsidise you in that saving.

Buybacks are an accident of tax law and ought to be taxed the same way as dividends.

replies(1): >>Anthon+ls
◧◩
8. toast0+rq[view] [source] [discussion] 2020-03-17 05:02:32
>>majorm+r8
In the absence of taxes, a buyback is equivilent to a dividend with automatic reinvestment.

It's better as a shareholder in many cases to be able to control when you recognize the gain from the return to investors.

replies(1): >>mrscot+b42
◧◩◪◨
9. Anthon+ls[view] [source] [discussion] 2020-03-17 05:23:43
>>lmm+co
> Buybacks are an accident of tax law and ought to be taxed the same way as dividends.

The problem is it's really the other way around -- reinvested dividends should be taxed like buybacks, i.e. taxed when the purchased shares are sold.

By contrast, taxing buybacks like current dividends would create a really grisly incentive for corporations to hoard a giant pile of money, since that would be the remaining way to defer the tax. This is already what international corporations do with offshore profits because of a similar incentive to defer corporate income tax, and it's a huge problem.

We have a policy of allowing people to avoid tax on investment gains until the investments are cashed out -- this is what a 401k is all about. We might as well make it consistent across the board so it stops creating all of these perverse incentives. (That would reduce the amount of tax collected, but it would also remove most of the justification for taxing capital gains at a lower rate than earned income, so changing both at once would about balance out.)

replies(1): >>lmm+st
◧◩◪◨⬒
10. lmm+st[view] [source] [discussion] 2020-03-17 05:36:16
>>Anthon+ls
I'd actually go the other route: tax investment gains like any other income, at the time when they happen, and then the incentive to do buybacks or cash hoarding goes away.
replies(1): >>Anthon+bv
◧◩◪◨⬒⬓
11. Anthon+bv[view] [source] [discussion] 2020-03-17 05:58:54
>>lmm+st
Then you have two new problems, because a lot of investments (e.g. real estate, small businesses) aren't liquid, and you don't necessarily know the value at any given time.

If you own a restaurant and a sports stadium opens next door which causes the value of the land to double overnight, you'd suddenly owe $50,000 in capital gains tax, but what if you don't have $50,000 in cash? You'd have to sell your restaurant to pay the tax on it.

If you write some software for your small business and start to license it to people for $50 each, how much is your corporation which owns the copyright now worth? Ten thousand dollars? Ten billion dollars? It depends how many copies you expect to sell. But the government would have to appraise it. What do you do if they appraise it as worth tens of millions of dollars? You'd immediately owe more than a million dollars in capital gains tax, but it's on the appraised value of an asset that may not turn into that much revenue for years -- or at all. And with no guarantee you could even find anyone willing to pay you that much for the business.

There are good reasons not to collect the tax until the investment is converted to cash.

replies(1): >>lmm+Vq4
◧◩◪
12. mrscot+b42[view] [source] [discussion] 2020-03-17 18:15:09
>>toast0+rq
Hilarious but probably time to leave this site...I got down voted into oblivion for pointing out the US economy would probably collapse due to repo operations 44 days ago...

Too bad, I guess anyone thinking outside the box and pointing out that our herd is going off a cliff is problematic...

replies(1): >>toast0+bo2
◧◩◪◨
13. toast0+bo2[view] [source] [discussion] 2020-03-17 19:43:22
>>mrscot+b42
The economy may be very well on its way to collapse, but I don't think it's because of the repo operations.
◧◩◪◨⬒⬓⬔
14. lmm+Vq4[view] [source] [discussion] 2020-03-18 14:51:43
>>Anthon+bv
Right, but none of those problems exist for listed stocks, which trade liquidly and can be readily converted back and forth to cash - indeed that's the whole reason a buyback works. I believe tax law already has a class of things that are considered cash-like - foreign currencies, bullion, that sort of thing - perhaps a good first step would be treating liquid stocks the same way.
[go to top]