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[parent] [thread] 2 comments
1. inimin+(OP)[view] [source] 2019-12-17 05:59:51
Well, no. That is the same kind of error as Zeno's paradox.

One assigns a prior to a class of hypotheses, and the cardinality of that set does not change the total probability you assign to the entire hypothesis class.

If one instead assigns a constant non-zero prior to each individual hypothesis of an infinite class, a grievous error has been committed and inconsistent and paradoxical beliefs can be the only result.

replies(1): >>yters+Emk
2. yters+Emk[view] [source] 2019-12-27 05:04:53
>>inimin+(OP)
Sounds like then you can just arbitrarily divide up your classes to benefit whatever hypothesis you want, leading to special pleading. I think to remain objective one has to integrate over the entire space of hypothesis instances, using an infinitesimal weighting in the case of infinite spaces.
replies(1): >>inimin+Rhu
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3. inimin+Rhu[view] [source] [discussion] 2020-01-01 10:30:08
>>yters+Emk
> integrate over the entire space of hypothesis instances, using an infinitesimal weighting in the case of infinite spaces.

Agreed.

However, when you write:

> the evidence makes the uncomputable partial Oracle the most likely hypothesis, since the space of uncomputable partial oracles is much much larger

you seem to argue that a hypothesis is more likely because it represents a larger (indeed infinite) space of sub-hypotheses. Reasoning from the cardinality of a set of hypotheses to a degree of belief in the set would in general seem to be unsound.

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