zlacker

Yes, beliefs are chosen for consequences. And the optimal way to choose a belief based on consequences is to choose the truth.

For example, my decision whether to take an umbrella today must be based on my honest best guess whether it'll rain today (and the relative utilities of various outcomes). If I shift my best guess one inch away from what's warranted by evidence, to obey social pressure or something, then acting-as-if the new belief was true will predictably lead to lower expected utility for me. That holds always, no matter how controversial the belief.

When social pressure is weak, it mostly makes people lie about their beliefs, while still acting-as-if their best guess was true. When social pressure gets strong, people start acting-as-if false things were true, and get lower utility. No amount of pressure can change the fact that actions based on accurate beliefs lead to higher expected utility. That's why I'm not a fan of social pressure on beliefs. For both individuals and societies, the best consequences are achieved by believing what is true.

>>cousin+(OP)
Social pressure itself is a fact. In your umbrella-example, you're restricting your definition of utility to the immediate benefit of dealing with rain weighted against the cost of having to carry the umbrella. But your choice can have a social effect, too. In particular, you need to take into account that other people will not always act on exactly what is warranted by evidence.

>>cousin+(OP)
You are right with your juxtaposition of belief and truth.

Two minor points:

1) What is truth? How do you know whether something is true? By perceiving it? Is your perception not influenced by belief?

I'm not saying that we cannot know truth, ever. But we have to keep in mind we might be wrong, too...

2) Believing in something might _make_ it become true. Or, to put it differently: Belief may lead to actions which change reality - essentially a self-fulfilling prophecy.

>>jabot+H3
Yeah, agreed on both points.