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[return to "xAI joins SpaceX"]
1. gok+h4[view] [source] 2026-02-02 22:06:22
>>g-mork+(OP)
> it is possible to put 500 to 1000 TW/year of AI satellites into deep space, meaningfully ascend the Kardashev scale and harness a non-trivial percentage of the Sun’s power

We currently make around 1 TW of photovoltaic cells per year, globally. The proposal here is to launch that much to space every 9 hours, complete with attached computers, continuously, from the moon.

edit: Also, this would capture a very trivial percentage of the Sun's power. A few trillionths per year.

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2. moeadh+Lf[view] [source] 2026-02-02 22:47:12
>>gok+h4
In fairness, solar cells can be about 5x more efficient in space (irradiance, uptime).
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3. cowsan+Yn[view] [source] 2026-02-02 23:19:09
>>moeadh+Lf
It is more than 5x less expensive to get surface area on earth’s surface.
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4. schiff+nw[view] [source] 2026-02-02 23:58:01
>>cowsan+Yn
The dominant factor is "balance of system" aka soft costs, which are well over 50%.[0]

Orbit gets you the advantage of 1/5th the PV and no large daily smoothing battery, but also no on-site installation cost, no grid interconnect fees, no custom engineering drawings, no environmental permitting fees, no grid of concrete footers, no heavy steel frames to resist wind and snow loads. The "on-site installation" is just the panels unfolding, and during launch they're compact so the support structure can be relatively lightweight.

When you cost building the datacenter alone, it's cheaper on earth. When you cost building the solar + batteries + datacenter, it (can be) cheaper in space, if you build it right and have cheap orbital launch.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balance_of_system

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5. ericd+sM[view] [source] 2026-02-03 01:41:20
>>schiff+nw
Yeah, soft costs like permitting and inspections are supposedly the main reason US residential solar costs $3/watt while Australian residential solar costs $1/watt. It was definitely the worst and least efficient part of our solar install, everything else was pretty straightforward. Also, running a pretty sizable array at our house, the seasonal variation is huge, and seasonal battery storage isn’t really a thing.

Besides making PV much more consistent, the main thing this seems to avoid is just the red tape around developing at huge scale, and basically being totally sovereign, which seems like it might be more important as tensions around this stuff ramp up. There’s clearly a backlash brewing against terrestrial data centers driving up utility bills, at least on the East Coast of the US.

The more I think about it, the more this seems like maybe not a terrible idea.

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6. XorNot+Yt1[view] [source] 2026-02-03 07:50:02
>>ericd+sM
Do you imagine there'd be less red tape involved in launching multiple rockets per day carrying heavy payloads?

Like this argument just gets absurd: you're claiming building a data center on earth will be harder from a permitting perspective than FAA flight approval for multiple heavy lift rocket launch and landing cycles.

Mining companies routinely open and close enormous surface area mines all over the world and manage permitting for that just fine.

There's plenty of land no one will care if your build anything on, and being remote with maybe poor access roads is still going to be enormously cheaper then launching a state of the art heavy lift rocket which doesn't actually exist yet.

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7. ericd+fn2[view] [source] 2026-02-03 14:20:28
>>XorNot+Yt1
Ok, why are so many being built in Northern Virginia, rather than in the middle of nowhere where there will be no backlash?

And permitting is challenging in part because it’s so different from place to place. Their permitting process with the FAA seems pretty streamlined.

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8. XorNot+8D3[view] [source] 2026-02-03 19:39:10
>>ericd+fn2
> Ok, why are so many being built in Northern Virginia, rather than in the middle of nowhere where there will be no backlash?

Right? So if that's the case why would putting them in Space, far less accessible in every conceivable way, with numerous additional expenses and engineering constraints, be cheaper?

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9. ericd+lM3[view] [source] 2026-02-03 20:20:04
>>XorNot+8D3
Yeah, I don't know if it wins on cheaper, even with $2M fully reusable starship launches. Maybe rollout speed vs piecing together BD deals with a bunch of different infra providers? The expansion of the grid is going to be hamstrung until congress finally passes energy permitting reform, which they've tried and failed at repeatedly. But they could do non-interconnected microgrids in the desert like Redwood Materials has been trying.

Maybe there's a concentration in VA because there's a set of deals/procedures in place with infra providers there that make it easy to scale up, similar to how DE has well developed corporate infrastructure, so everyone incorporates there. But that stops when the area hits its limit in power provision (which seems to be happening right now). In which case, being able to do this yourself end to end by putting this stuff in space with your own power generation makes it the ultimate scale-up opportunity - no real limits on space or power availability, so once you get that method down, you can mass-scale and get great economies of scale. Maintenance isn't a thing, these will be disposable.

I think that's it, money's not the limiting factor if they can pitch this successfully, which I think they will. They want massive scale without the constraints you hit when doing it on earth. I think he's aiming for scale that we haven't seen in DCs on earth.

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