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[return to "xAI joins SpaceX"]
1. gok+h4[view] [source] 2026-02-02 22:06:22
>>g-mork+(OP)
> it is possible to put 500 to 1000 TW/year of AI satellites into deep space, meaningfully ascend the Kardashev scale and harness a non-trivial percentage of the Sun’s power

We currently make around 1 TW of photovoltaic cells per year, globally. The proposal here is to launch that much to space every 9 hours, complete with attached computers, continuously, from the moon.

edit: Also, this would capture a very trivial percentage of the Sun's power. A few trillionths per year.

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2. rainsf+RA[view] [source] 2026-02-03 00:24:23
>>gok+h4
We also shouldn't overlook the fact that the proposal entirely glosses over the implication of the alternative benefits we might realize if humanity achieved the incredible engineering and technical capacity necessary to make this version of space AI happen.

Think about it. Elon conjures up a vision of the future where we've managed to increase our solar cell manufacturing capacity by two whole orders of magnitude and have the space launch capability for all of it along with tons and tons of other stuff and the best he comes up with is...GPUs in orbit?

This is essentially the superhero gadget technology problem, where comic books and movies gloss over the the civilization changing implications of some technology the hero invents to punch bad guys harder. Don't get me wrong, the idea of orbiting data centers is kind of cool if we can pull it off. But being able to pull if off implies an ability to do a lot more interesting things. The problem is that this is both wildly overambitious and somehow incredibly myopic at the same time.

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3. byeart+1G[view] [source] 2026-02-03 00:57:24
>>rainsf+RA
So what are the other things? You said he glossed over them and didn't mention a single one.
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4. aorlof+7I[view] [source] 2026-02-03 01:11:15
>>byeart+1G
Reliably and efficiently transport energy generated in space back to earth, for starters

Or let me guess, its going to be profitable to mine crypto in space (thereby solving the problem of transporting the "work" back to earth)

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5. mkull+KK[view] [source] 2026-02-03 01:29:06
>>aorlof+7I
Why would you transfer the energy to earth? The energy powers ai compute = $
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6. Sparyj+6e1[view] [source] 2026-02-03 05:29:39
>>mkull+KK
Dead on, You can transmit data to and from space and have the compute completed at potentially fractions of the cost.
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7. aorlof+mf1[view] [source] 2026-02-03 05:41:25
>>Sparyj+6e1
Tell me about your cooling medium in space
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8. rlt+Bf1[view] [source] 2026-02-03 05:44:00
>>aorlof+mf1
A large piece of aluminum with ammonia pumped through it?
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9. jacque+0t1[view] [source] 2026-02-03 07:43:38
>>rlt+Bf1
Right up to the radiation limit and then you'll either have to throttle your precious GPUs or you'll be melting your satellite or at least the guts of it. You're looking at an absolutely massive radiator here, many times larger than the solar panels that collect the energy to begin with.
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10. Doctor+wC1[view] [source] 2026-02-03 08:56:13
>>jacque+0t1
not really, for A_radiator / A_PV = ~3; you can keep the satellite cool to about 27 deg C (300K) check my example calculation (Ctrl-F: pyramid)
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11. mlyle+2C2[view] [source] 2026-02-03 15:30:28
>>Doctor+wC1
> > absolutely massive radiator here, many times larger than the solar panels

> A_radiator / A_PV = ~3;

Seems like you're in agreement. There's a couple more issues here--

1. Solar panels are typically big compared to the rest of the satellite bus. How much radiator area do you need per 700W GPU at some reasonable solar panel efficiency?

2. Getting the satellite overall to an average 27C temperature doesn't necessarily keep the GPU cool; the satellite is not isothermal.

My back of the envelope estimate says you need about 2.5 square meters of radiator (perhaps more) to cool a 700W GPU and the solar panel powering the GPU. You can fit about 100 of these GPUs in a typical liquid-cooled rack, so you need about 250 square meters of radiator to match one rack. And, unfortunately, you can't easily use an inflatable structure, etc, because you need to conduct or convect heat into that radiator.

This assumes that you lose no additional heat in moving heat or in power conversion.

And they’re going to mass a -lot-. Not that anyone would use a pyramid— you would want panels with the side facing the sun radiating too. There are plenty of surfaces that radiate more than they absorb at reasonable temperatures in sunlight.

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