zlacker

>>tedsan+(OP)
For fun, I calculated how this stacks up against other humanity-scale mega projects.

Mega Project Rankings (USD Inflation Adjusted)

The New Deal: $1T,

Interstate Highway System: $618B,

OpenAI Stargate: $500B,

The Apollo Project: $278B,

International Space Station: $180B,

South-North Water Transfer: $106B,

The Channel Tunnel: $31B,

Manhattan Project: $30B

Insane Stuff.

>>wujerr+DI
It's unfair, because we are talking in the hindsight about everything but Project Stargate, and it's also just your list (and I don't know what others could add to it) but it got me thinking. Manhattan Project goal is to make a powerful bomb. Apollo is to get to the Moon before soviets do (so, because of hubris, but still there is a concrete goal). South-North Water Transfer is pretty much terraforming, and others are mostly roads. I mean, it's all kinda understandable.

And Stargate Project is... what exactly? What is the goal? To make Altman richer, or is there any more or less concrete goal to achieve?

Also, few items for comparison, that I googled while thinking about it:

- Yucca Mountain Nuclear Waste Repository: $96B

- ITER: $65B

- Hubble Space Telescope: $16B

- JWST: $11B

- LHC: $10B

Sources:

https://jameswebbtracker.com/jwst/budget

https://blogfusion.tech/worlds-most-expensive-experiments/

https://science.nasa.gov/mission/hubble/overview/faqs/

>>krick+tY
>What is the goal?

Be the definitive first past the post in the budding "AI" industry.

Why? He who wins first writes the rules.

For an obvious example: The aviation industry uses feets and knots instead of metres because the US invented and commercialized aviation.

Another obvious example: Computers all speak ASCII (read: English) and even Unicode is based on ASCII because the US and UK commercialized computers.

If you want to write the rules you must win first, it is an absolute requirement. Runner-ups and below only get to obey the rules.

>>Dalewy+021
okay, but what advantages do these rules bring to the winner? what would these look like in this context?

i guess what i'm asking is: what was the practical advantage of ascii or feet and knots that made them so important?

>>fronta+TG1
>what advantages do these rules bring to the winner?

An almost absolute incumbency advantage.

>what was the practical advantage of ascii or feet and knots

Familiarity. Americans and Britons speak English, and they wrote the rules in English. Everyone else after the fact needs to read English or GTFO.

Alternatively, think of it like this: Nvidia was the first to commercialize "AI" with CUDA. Now everyone in "AI" must speak CUDA or be irrelevant.

He who wins first writes the rules, runner-ups and below obey the rules.

This is why America and China are fiercely competing to be the first past the post so one of them will write the rules. This is why Japan and Europe insist they will write the rules, nevermind the fact they aren't even in the race (read: they won't write the rules).

>>Dalewy+PS1
okay, i think i get the cuda situation, but that is only for nvidia. amd is out of luck on that too, just like all companies from asia and europe.

on the previous examples i can see language gave native speakers and advantage in becoming familiar with the technology but on ai i'm not seeing an advantage that would give americans an advantage over everyone else, besides controlling access to the tech.

the reason i'm insisting on this is because i feel as if that argument has merit but i have yet to grasp how it applies to these technologies.

>>fronta+nz2
In this case the race is to win and secure the supply chains.

The microprocessors concerned are very high value goods, manufacturing and R&D for them can't be easily and quickly spun up on a whim. The country and companies first to start them up and win will secure the supply chains, and once secured it will take monumental money and effort to reconfigure them. A lot of money is at stake, in other words.

Geopolitically, it also means that the country who secures the supply chain also gets to quite literally write the rules regarding who and where the microprocessors can be sold to and exported. Either the US or China gets to decide who can buy the microprocessors depending on who wins the supply chain.

Just like Nvidia was the first past the post and now enjoys absolute incumbency advantage, whichever country (namely US or China) is first past the post in the "AI" industry will enjoy absolute incumbency advantage.