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[return to "Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro"]
1. lawn+I5[view] [source] 2024-06-13 19:13:22
>>anigbr+(OP)
It's mentioned in the article, but the reaction to the sanctions seem fairly severe?

Russian banks went down en masse, the spread of foreign currencies was larger than the official numbers, and people were queuing outside the banks to withdraw money.

Of course, the Russian narrative is that this will hurt the west more than it will hurt Russia...

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2. SXX+c9[view] [source] 2024-06-13 19:33:34
>>lawn+I5
Unfortunately nothing really happened in Russia because the only meaningful exchange rate of RUB / USD pair is not set by some central bank or exchange, but crypto market:

https://www.bestchange.com/sberbank-to-tether-trc20.html

There was drop of like 5-10%, but that's nothing special. You can still go and buy as much USDT as you want for reasonable price. And this is what majority of normal people use to move money out of country.

PS: I am obviously anti-Putin dude, but at this point sanctions make very little difference short term. Giving more weapons to Ukraine is the only way to stop Russia.

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3. JumpCr+ta[view] [source] 2024-06-13 19:40:16
>>SXX+c9
> sanctions make very little difference short term. Giving more weapons to Ukraine is the only way to stop Russia

Correct. Long term, the effects of a materially-high real interest rate, capital controls and the demographic and technological degradation of sanctions and the war directly are starting to show their teeth.

Sanctions won’t stop this war. But they’ll facilitate degrading Russia so it is in no position to launch the next. (Weapons will stop this war.)

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4. SXX+ad[view] [source] 2024-06-13 19:53:04
>>JumpCr+ta
Yeah. But nothing critical has happened yet due to sanctions and unlikely to happen anytime soon. At current rate Putin can fund war indefenetely just by pumping money into economy and making society pay for it.

Old soviet joke:

  Dad: Looks like vodka will become more expensive.
  Son: Dad, are you going to drink less now?
  Dad: No, son, now you are going to eat less.
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5. JumpCr+nd[view] [source] 2024-06-13 19:53:46
>>SXX+ad
> nothing critical has happened yet due to sanctions

The semiconductor shortage is militarily relevant, as are the increasing delays in repairing damaged refineries and power plants [1].

> current rate Putin can fund war indefenetely

Setting aside demographics, his war engine relies on oil, an increasingly-stranded asset [2]. (Over geopolitical time scales.)

Putin is blowing grandma’s inheritance on fast cars.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-sanctions-ham...

[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/big-oil-given-stark-warning-...

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6. SXX+Pe[view] [source] 2024-06-13 20:00:00
>>JumpCr+nd
> The semiconductor shortage is pretty big

What semiconductor shortage? Who is affected by them? Russia is buying literally everything through Turkey, Kazakhstan and other ex-USSR countries. US and EU exports to ex-USSR countries are booming.

Of course Russia can't just sneak up some giant oil refinery or LPG equipment, but semiconductors are super easy to smuggle. Even more so since they have unlimited budget.

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7. JumpCr+3g[view] [source] 2024-06-13 20:06:13
>>SXX+Pe
> What semiconductor shortage? Who is affected by them? Russia is buying literally everything through Turkey, Kazakhstan and other ex-USSR countries

Which increases cost and lag time. It also means they’re restricted to commodity components; it’s even harder for them to have custom components fabricated.

Blockade runners have always been a thing. The point of the blockade is to increase cost, lag and uncertainty. That’s the difference between blockade/sanctions and siege.

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