zlacker

>>kcorbi+(OP)
The cycle of these technologies is always the same:

    1. Initial introduction or release
    2. Major hype and influx of greed money. <- AI is here now
    3. Failure to live up to the hype, resulting in the tech becoming a punchline and gobs of money lost
    4. Renaissance of the tech as its true potential is eventually realized, which doesn't match the original hype but ends up very useful
    5. Iteration and improvement with no clear "done" or "achieved" milestone, it just becomes part of society

The bombardment of charlatans taking advantage of the term, coupled with commercials everywhere suggests we will soon hit stage 3 for AI. The Super Bowl commercials are usually the tipping point.

Crypto is at stage 3 now.

Not all technologies make it to steps 4-5.

Hell, I remember when social media followed the same path. And ecommerce before it. Or the web in general before that. And on and on it goes.

>>baggac+Jm
AI is at step 4, transitioning to 5

>>asicsa+Gq
When every LinkedIn thoughtfluencer is writing 3-page screeds about how they're thoughtfluencing through AI you really know you're firmly in step 2.

Likewise when breathless reporters keep asking non-AI companies what their AI strategy is, you know you're firmly in step 2. Remember when Walmart was expected to have a "metaverse strategy"?

Also worth noting that many (most?) technologies do not have a step 4 or 5. They're just permanently/indefinitely dead after the hype train goes off the rails (see: personal jetpacks)

>>potato+6z
Something being overhyped implies grifters will appear but grifters don't imply that something is overhyped. I'm sure people were the same with cars and transistors. People definitely were breathless about smartphones the same way when they came out (everyone was selling apps that did exactly the same thing as websites) and they've changed the world for better or worse.

Crypto and AI both attract get rich quick bullshitters but I think AI right now is actually a crazy unexpected sci fi tech while crypto wasn't good for anything except fraud, gambling and the black market.

>>chpatr+hS
I partially agree. I think the last giant hype cycle around crypto had no pants on the entire time. It was all one giant delusion, and also why I don't think crypto will have step 4-5. It's just dead outside of incredibly niche uses (many of which are crimes).

I also agree that there's something there there with LLMs... but also that it's hopelessly overhyped right now.

Smartphones are a good example of this - nowadays we tend to think about iPhone or BlackBerry as the start of the smartphone "era" - but that wasn't the actual start of smartphones.

The first smartphones were called PDAs, and there was a hype cycle around that! Lots of companies wanted in! But adoption was abysmal and the whole thing fizzled out. BlackBerry and iPhone were the steps 4-5 of that cycle.

The state of LLMs right now is the Palm Pilot. Whiz-bang. Cool. Tons of press. Lots of imagined applications and attempts at mainstream adoption - but honestly nowhere near good enough to achieve mainstream breakout. Died a slow death without fulfilling its most lofty promises, and the space was relegated to a niche status until the actual entrants arrived to actually achieve mainstream success.

I think LLMs will have a step 4-5 with actual mainstream success. I just don't think the current players are it, and also that the vast majority of the current players have no pants on and are just pure grift.