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>>kevema+(OP)
Metacalculus, a mass forecasting site, has steadily brought forward the prediction date for a weakly general AI. Jaw-dropping advances like this, only increase my confidence in this prediction. "The future is now, old man."

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general...

>>james-+V4
I don't see how this gets us (much) closer to general AI. Where is the reasoning?

>>tpmx+V9
Perhaps the confluence of NLP and something generative?

>>_joel+1f
Yes metaculus mostly bet a magic number based on perhaps and tbh why not, the interaction of NLP and vision is mysterious and has potential. However those magic numbers should still be considered magic numbers. I agree that in 2040 the interactions will have extensively been studied though but the conclusion of wether we czn go much further on cross-models synergies is totally unknown or pessimist.