Every other theory requires involving many more unsupported hypotheses.
This would be obvious to the majority of the HN population in most cases, but the disinformation in this case is apparently quite effective.
It doesn't make much sense to single it out here, the most plausible version of the lab leak hypothesis is that covid is the result of cooperative research undertaken by American and Chinese scientists and funded by both governments
Edit: I'd love to receive a substantive counterargument from the downvoters
As for the Americans, their culpability in helping make the lab I think would be seen as a small thing.
Paradoxically, it may be in everyone's interest for the plebes to never find out the truth. If there was magically some 'hard evidence' to appear, right now, that made China culpable ... we would be heading into another, massive recession. There would be riots around the world, Asians in every continent would face threats of violence and attacks for a decade. Forget America where those things are talked about ... you can forget being Chinese in Poland, it would be painful.
The populism would be intense and ferocious, but not only that, regular institutions, businesses, CEOs etc would also be upset for very good reason. I can see China facing lawsuits for literally Trillions of dollars.
It could feasibly lead to a chain of events sparking a war.
This is completely conspiratorial, but I honestly wonder if the West actively doesn't want to push for the truth because it would do more damage than good. If China knows 'they did it' they're probably going to make the changes necessary so it doesn't happen again, for their own benefit, and it's unlikely they need international pressure or the threat of litigation to improve those pressures. But that's just a fantastical idea.
Basically 'The Truth' is a different thing than 'The Impact of Public Information' and both of those things matter. It's a scary thought but it's the Realpolitik of information.
> It could feasibly lead to a chain of events sparking a war.
The American stance as it stands could very well lead to war, with or without covid as an aggravating factor
Exclusive attention to questions of Chinese culpability without turning a critical eye to the United States, as in the comment I responded to, feeds directly into the sort of tensions you claim to want to avoid
The sort of "realpolitik of information" you describe may be necessary for the maintenance of political order precisely insofar as its subjects believe themselves to participate freely and voluntarily
More importantly this is raw populism, not details.
If there were conclusive evidence that mapped COVID to the lab ... I think literally Chinese people would be murdered the same day in violent outbreaks in Philippines, Malaysia and India for example. There would be anti-Chinese riots literally the world over, every Chinese business would be wary of having it's windows smashed in, politicians would have to balance tamping down the violence with doing politically populist acts of retaliation etc..
It would be really ugly. I can see people on CNN begging to stop the violence.
That America sponsored some of the specific research I don't think would much factor in either in the US or anywhere else.
Business between China and the rest of the world would have to transform quite dramatically.
All actual facts aside, that would be my big worry.
Yes, and the same can surely be said of Chinese- we must consider whether to allow this kind of research in the future however
A conclusive "reveal" is unlikely given the variety and saturation of information channels- and with respect although your description of the risks is overstated imo the level of detail you go into makes your comment read uncomfortably like a threat
I think the global distribution of opinion regarding the U.S. and China portends a very different reaction to a hypothetical reveal than the one you describe
Let's strive neither to put actual facts aside nor to grasp for certainty where little exists
No - if a Chinese lab/company let the virus out, it's not really comparable to America's involvement. It would be 'mostly that agency's fault', objectively speaking.
Internationally, people would see it as 'China' not the specific agency.
If we did in fact find that this is a 'Wuhan Lab' issue - it would be a seminal geopolitical event - on par with the dropping of Nuclear Weapons.
It would be a major global realignment in so many areas, even without the populism.
The issues around populism are not a 'threat' it's a 'concern'.
3 Million people have died from this, there are grieving families all around the world - there are 100's of millions unemployed - and they will be told 'It's China's fault' - what do you think is going to happen? Since we're already seeing light anti Asian sentiment around the world, what will happen when we are told that 'China' is culpable?
On the day after 9/11 the only flights out of the US allowed were those back to Saudi Arabia. G. Bush basically told the Saudi Embassy and many student nationals etc. to 'get everyone out in 24 hours' for fear of populist reprisals.
BLM protests broke out, billions in damage and several dead over a police shooting ... and that's in the US.
So I don't think it's that much of a stretch to say it would be dangerous to be Chinese in many places in the world. It's certainly not a threat, it's the reality of the world we live in. There are ethnic riots all over the world, all the time.