zlacker

Child prodigies rarely become elite performers

submitted by i7l+(OP) on 2026-02-05 02:17:08 | 141 points 151 comments
[view article] [source] [go to bottom]

https://archive.md/dhAJl


NOTE: showing posts with links only show all posts
1. stevef+K9[view] [source] 2026-02-05 03:43:45
>>i7l+(OP)
OTOH, https://www.newscientist.com/article/2509261-high-achieving-...
6. opinol+ob[view] [source] 2026-02-05 03:59:09
>>i7l+(OP)
https://archive.is/dhAJl
19. Esopha+Cc[view] [source] 2026-02-05 04:13:56
>>i7l+(OP)
Fantastic book called Range that talks about this phenomenon. Surprisingly, the child prodigy to adult superstar pipeline is less common than the generalist to adult superstar pipeline.

Tiger Woods is the classic example of a child prodigy, but it turns out his path is unusual for superstars. Roger Federer’s (who played a wide range of sports growing up until he specialized in tennis as a teen) is more common.

https://magazine.columbia.edu/article/review-range

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/41795733

◧◩
27. jacind+ld[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-05 04:22:02
>>FeteCo+Sb
This is an excellent point! People often forget that something uncommon out of a much larger pool is still larger than anything that comes from a smaller pool (base rate neglect).

https://www.simplypsychology.org/base-rate-fallacy.html

> For example, given a choice of the two categories, people might categorize a woman as a politician rather than a banker if they heard that she enjoyed social activism at school—even if they knew that she was drawn from a population consisting of 90% bankers and 10% politicians (APA).

The general population is much larger than the population of child prodigies.

53. EGreg+ph[view] [source] 2026-02-05 05:08:52
>>i7l+(OP)
That’s exactly what Vladimir Feltsman said about me when I was like 8 LOL. He is on video here saying it… “I want him to start playing concerts 3-4 years later but be in business 40 years longer!”

https://youtu.be/lf2DWzQ-5zk

Spoiler: I got into computers as a teenager and my piano career took a nosedive, from Carnegie Hall and Juilliard to like… playing for friends at a house party :)

63. gwern+Hj[view] [source] 2026-02-05 05:31:25
>>i7l+(OP)
Previously discussed (and criticized) at >>46722853
65. hn_thr+1l[view] [source] 2026-02-05 05:43:14
>>i7l+(OP)
I admit I haven't read the full study, but I'm extremely skeptical that the takeaway as given in the article is valid.

Take violinists, for example. Essentially every single world renowned soloist was "some sort" of child prodigy. Now, I've heard some soloists argue that they were not, in fact, child prodigies. For example, may favorite violinist, Hilary Hahn, has said this. She still debuted with the Baltimore Symphony Orchestra when she was 12, and here she is performing as a soloist at 15: https://youtu.be/upkP46nvqVI. Nathan Milstein, one of the greatest violinists of all time, said he was "not very good until his teens" - he still started playing at the age of 5, and at the age of 11 Leopold Auer, a great violin teacher, invited him to become one of his students, so he clearly saw his potential.

I have no doubt lots of prodigies burn out. But, at least in the world of violins, essentially every great soloist was playing at an extremely high level by the time they were in middle school.

◧◩◪◨
69. thesz+sm[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-05 05:58:53
>>paulmo+4l
This is a story of how one became better golf player by increasing his strength: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sr2pgBTRpK4

One can enhance cognitive functions by strength training: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8534220/

Aside from time travel, the best way to improve in very important things is through strength training.

◧◩◪
79. Jensso+7u[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-05 07:14:50
>>Walter+7e
Are you sure about that? Most people don't remember all the math they went through in middle school, typically you go through a ton of concepts including probability and statistics and angles and shapes and so on.

You should have learned roughly what is in this book at grade 7, it includes algebraic expressions, angles, ratios, unit conversions, statistical concepts like mean, mode, bar graphs, probability of dice and coins and so on.

https://archive.org/details/newenjoyingmathe0000jose/page/4/...

Then in grade 8 you'd go on to do those kind of things but a bit more advanced. Most people just forget how much math they learned and think they learned all that in high school.

◧◩◪
92. emmela+xA[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-05 08:16:22
>>cpncru+Ee
Bizarre.

https://gyrovague.com/2026/02/01/archive-today-is-directing-...

◧◩◪
97. djtang+2B[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-05 08:21:49
>>simian+jv
There are 7 year olds[1] who can play better than I can despite 30+ years of playing piano, and even with fairly dedicated practise the progress is so much slower than someone with actual talent.

I had a friend who could play all the Chopin Etudes at age 9. Some of the best art simply requires a virtuoso to bring it to life.

[1] https://youtu.be/PX57r1l5W3U?si=wiix8NWw_9D4YCCb

◧◩◪◨⬒
119. ozim+3h1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-05 14:01:49
>>volemo+Ye1
LMGTFY:

https://www.health.harvard.edu/mind-and-mood/the-adolescent-...

◧◩
146. cpncru+BM3[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-06 05:07:30
>>cpncru+Le
https://gyrovague.com/2026/02/01/archive-today-is-directing-...
[go to top]