imo the most likely answer is that asml funds a second source for the optics that isn't US controlled and starts shipping to China. The US is losing influence fast.
>>adgjls+(OP)
It would likely take ASML decades to develop an alternative EUV light source not encumbered by US defense technology, at which time it may not matter.
Everyone is still dependent on a single American manufacturer for this tech after decades of development. This strongly suggests that it is considerably more difficult than just "funding a second source".