zlacker

On the other hand I'd prefer a heart surgeon who performed a hundred low-stakes surgeries and is now on his first heart surgery over the heart surgeon who has done one heart surgery before but has otherwise no surgery experience

As the stakes get higher you have to slow down, but imho the right takeaway from that is that you need to find low-stakes environments where you can move fast, in addition to whatever high-stakes environment you have

>>wongar+(OP)
Wrong criteria. Evaluate the number of successful outcomes!

(Including the cancelled interventions when the surgeon recognized that surgery was not required.)