Results are... underwhelming. All the AIs are focused on daytrading Mag7 stocks; almost all have lost money with gusto.
[1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USKD3vPD6ZA [video][15 mins]
My working definition of technical analysis [0]
I still have no idea how to make sense of the huge gap between the Nof1 arena and the aitradearena results. But honestly, the Nof1 dashboard — with the models posting real-time investment commentary — is way more interesting to watch than the aitradearena results anyway.
> an extensive empirical study across more than 70 models, revealing the Artificial Hivemind effect: pronounced intra- and inter-model homogenization
So the inter-model variety will be exeptionally low. Users of LLMs will intuitively know this already, of course.
We're also running a live experiment on both stocks and options. One difference with our experiment is a lot more tools being available to the models (anything you can think of, sec filings, fundamentals, live pricing, options data).
We think backtests are meaningless given LLMs have mostly memorized every single thing that happened so it's not a good test. So we're running a forward test. Not enough data for now but pretty interesting initial results
We're trying to fix some of those limitations and run a similar live competition at https://rallies.ai/arena
> hey @grok if you had the number one overall pick in the 1997 NFL draft and your team needed a quarterback, would you have taken Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf or Elon Musk?
>> Elon Musk, without hesitation. Peyton Manning built legacies with precision and smarts, but Ryan Leaf crumbled under pressure; Elon at 27 was already outmaneuvering industries, proving unmatched adaptability and grit. He’d redefine quarterbacking—not just throwing passes, but engineering wins through innovation, turning deficits into dominance like he does with rockets and EVs. True MVPs build empires, not just score touchdowns.
- https://x.com/silvermanjacob/status/1991565290967298522
[0] https://gizmodo.com/11-things-grok-says-elon-musk-does-bette...
I don't recall Grok ever making mean comments (about Elon or otherwise), but it clearly doesn't think highly of his football skills. The chain of thought shows that it interpreted the question as a joke.
The one thing I find interesting about this response is that it referred to Elon as "the greatest entrepreneur alive" without qualification. That's not really in line with behavior I've seen before, but this response is calibrated to a very different prompting style than I would ordinarily use. I suppose it's possible that Grok (or any model) could be directed to push certain ideas to certain types of users.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management was kind of an example of both of those. They based their predictions on past behaviour which proved incorrect. Also if other market participants figure a large player is in trouble and going to have to sell a load of bonds they all drop their bids to take advantage of that.
A lot of deviations from efficient market theory are like that - not deeply technical but about human foolishness.
I'm extremely skeptical of any attempt to prevent leakage of future results to LLMs evaluated on backtesting. Both because this has beet shown in the literature to be difficult, and because I personally found it very difficult when working with LLMs for forecasting.
“ Using transaction-level data on US congressional stock trades, we find that lawmakers who later ascend to leadership positions perform similarly to matched peers beforehand but outperform them by 47 percentage points annually after ascension. Leaders’ superior performance arises through two mechanisms. The political influence channel is reflected in higher returns when their party controls the chamber, sales of stocks preceding regulatory actions, and purchase of stocks whose firms receiving more government contracts and favorable party support on bills. The corporate access channel is reflected in stock trades that predict subsequent corporate news and greater returns on donor-owned or home-state firms.”